Application of Extreme Learning Machine Algorithm for Drought Forecasting

Table 4

The candidacy of appropriate distributions according to their respective BIC values for SPTI-1.

Distribution	Mianwali	Sialkot	Muzaffarabad	Astore	Chitral	Multan	Kalat	Chhor	Kohat
2P beta	−260.71	−387.86	−278.31	−280.10	−216.46	−63.88	−418.16	−244.53	−228.65
3P Weibull	−472.53	−718.58	−555.22	−480.83	−400.89	−317.25	−638.60	−444.44	−622.28
4P beta	−463.53	−722.18	−584.52	−469.79	−393.88	−311.66	−664.62	−434.07	−616.67
Arcsine	−211.50	−322.48	−364.18	−272.85	−194.87	−38.61	−353.11	−178.98	−216.75
Burr	−49.90	−291.37	−351.96	−347.29	−87.23	259.98	−111.45	197.60	−315.30
Cauchy	−218.97	−414.95	−460.90	−367.96	−227.51	−87.98	−498.98	−289.68	−322.84
Chi	−292.62	−424.20	−186.90	−247.93	−245.62	113.16	−220.02	130.71	−315.76
Chi-square	−321.57	−546.12	−456.49	−441.42	−271.12	125.40	−179.55	136.71	−588.65
Cosine	−5.68	−181.37	−403.03	−192.31	−48.26	267.44	−64.93	206.84	−159.22
Curv. trapezoidal	−163.25	−349.64	−555.47	−375.44	−169.25	−117.58	−60.78	−236.04	−415.05
Exponential	−128.46	−375.68	−561.96	−401.81	−163.06	106.66	−407.55	−244.95	−496.17
F-dist	−295.38	−613.36	−361.98	−457.56	−248.41	158.37	−180.79	152.12	−490.64
Gamma	−316.77	−648.41	−557.36	−477.56	−268.29	−70.08	−441.22	−246.11	−584.11
Gen. ext. value	−320.78	−565.13	−526.85	−456.48	−316.84	−242.60	−620.84	−441.41	−431.50
Gen. normal	−366.43	−633.43	−533.60	−476.01	−358.69	−303.25	−627.76	−443.34	−466.85
Gumbel	−179.72	−379.06	−527.12	−389.62	−195.10	−35.02	−431.30	−244.43	−376.46
Inv. chi-square	−148.95	−274.23	−379.11	−273.05	−162.67	15.23	−356.13	−200.45	−239.52
Inv. Gamma	−298.53	−536.09	−421.80	−396.36	−296.90	−174.70	−535.77	−276.36	−325.84
Inv. Gaussian	−178.04	−440.80	−429.50	−356.23	−229.22	−55.60	−485.95	−253.33	−252.24
Johnson SB	−364.48	−633.93	−547.57	−478.62	−357.49	−298.02	−623.36	−445.58	−463.74
Johnson SU	−361.60	−628.62	−528.86	−471.37	−354.24	−298.52	−623.36	−445.58	−461.94
Laplace	−184.73	−413.96	−480.10	−382.24	−201.82	−41.51	−439.14	−245.85	−339.58
Logistic	−176.53	−360.75	−496.70	−365.07	−190.99	−30.47	−425.80	−243.25	−333.03
Log-normal	−319.29	−610.18	−470.78	−478.07	−301.39	−139.80	−486.30	−259.66	−453.97
Normal	−169.86	−345.46	−498.92	−357.27	−184.07	−21.42	−418.91	−240.70	−327.01
Rayleigh	−171.77	−356.66	−524.70	−373.83	−186.34	−23.85	−420.65	−241.01	−358.02
Scaled t-dist	−241.83	−423.80	−494.18	−369.08	−242.48	−122.45	−535.64	−356.41	−330.06
Skewed-normal	−167.53	−360.64	−558.46	−384.42	−182.86	−19.95	−417.15	−236.57	−400.74
Trapezoidal	−134.44	−326.85	−548.58	−361.71	−171.10	−8.78	−409.37	−231.50	−389.97
Triangular	−91.67	−331.66	−553.32	−366.35	−175.48	24.70	−413.76	−236.04	−394.58
Uniform	−94.00	−244.30	−269.41	−274.09	−124.13	170.57	−80.62	144.85	−261.94
von Mises	−169.96	−348.32	−392.92	−364.93	−184.39	−21.44	−419.38	−240.71	−331.99