Complexity

Research Article

Application of Extreme Learning Machine Algorithm for Drought Forecasting

Table 6

The estimated parameters of optimum selected ARIMA models at all selected meteorological stations with (1, 3, 6, 9, and 12) month time scales.


Stations		Optimum model	Drift

Astore	SPTI-1	ARIMA (5, 0, 1) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	0.808	−0.047	−0.123	0.040	−0.157	−0.579	—	—	—	0.171	0.164	—	—
	SPTI-3	ARIMA (2, 0, 2) (2, 1, 0)₁₂	—	−0.005	0.114	—	—	—	0.815	0.546	—	—	−0.611	−0.315	—	—
	SPTI-6	ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (2, 1, 0)₁₂	−0.002	0.837	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	−0.648	−0.350	—	—
	SPTI-9	ARIMA (2, 0, 1) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	1.632	−0.710	—	—	—	−0.576	—	—		0.212	0.168	—	—
	SPTI-12	ARIMA (2, 0, 0) (0, 0, 1)₁₂	—	1.05	−0.067	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	−0.777	—

Chhor	SPTI-1	ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	0.179	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.317	0.219	—	—
	SPTI-3	ARIMA (4, 0, 0) (2, 1, 0)₁₂	—	0.696	0.035	−0.249	0.101	—	—	—	—	—	−0.681	−0.370	—	—
	SPTI-6	ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (2, 1, 0)₁₂	0.001	0.813	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	−0.649	−0.348	—	—
	SPTI-9	ARIMA (2, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	1.000	−0.191	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.274	0.162	—	—
	SPTI-12	ARIMA (1, 0, 1) (0, 0, 1)₁₂	—	0.957	—	—	—	—	0.080	—	—	—	—	—	−0.711	—

Chitral	SPTI-1	ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0)₁₂	—	0.123	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	−0.539	—	—	—
	SPTI-3	ARIMA (2, 0, 2) (1, 1, 0)₁₂	−0.001	0.005	0.077	—	—	—	0.782	0.520	—	—	−0.527	—	—	—
	SPTI-6	ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0)₁₂	−0.002	0.823	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	−0.524	—	—	—
	SPTI-9	ARIMA (2, 0, 2) (1, 1, 0)₁₂	−0.003	0.008	0.788	—	—	—	0.922	0.043	—	—	−0.540	—	—	—
	SPTI-12	ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (0, 0, 1)₁₂	—	0.978	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	−0.643	—

Kalat	SPTI-1	ARIMA (4, 1, 1) (0, 0, 21)₁₂	—	0.319	0.038	0.028	−0.067	—	−0.987	—	—	—	—	—	0.216	0.191
	SPTI-3	ARIMA (2, 0, 2) (2, 1, 0)₁₂	0.001	0.046	0.249	—	—	—	0.779	0.449	—	—	−0.669	−0.344	—	—
	SPTI-6	ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (2, 1, 0)₁₂	—	0.880	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	−0.710	−0.360	—	—
	SPTI-9	ARIMA (0, 0, 1) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.085	—	—	—	0.215	0.307	—	—
	SPTI-12	ARIMA (3, 1, 0) (0, 0, 2)₁₂	—	0.120	0.077	0.037	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	−0.782	−0.052

Kohat	SPTI-1	ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	0.157	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.165	0.261	—	—
	SPTI-3	ARIMA (5, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	0.912	−0.104	−0.511	0.473	−0.121	—	—	—	—	0.141	0.224	—	—
	SPTI-6	ARIMA (4, 0, 1) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	0.074	0.838	−0.096	−0.209	—	0.959	—	—	—	0.102	0.176	—	—
	SPTI-9	ARIMA (5, 0, 4) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	−0.340	0.288	−0.283	0.203	0.441	1.449	1.168	1.374	0.900	0.130	0.264	—	—
	SPTI-12	ARIMA (1, 0, 2) (2, 0, 2)₁₂	—	0.978	—	—	—	—	0.091	0.067	—	—	−0.335	−0.134	−0.462	−0.119

Mianwali	SPTI-1	ARIMA (5, 1, 0) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	−0.813	−0.640	−0.537	−0.395	−0.176	—	—	—	—	0.257	0.304	—	—
	SPTI-3	ARIMA (2, 0, 3) (2, 1, 0)₁₂	0.001	0.504	0.139	—	—	—	0.254	0.156	−0.410	—	−0.634	−0.350	—	—
	SPTI-6	ARIMA (0, 1, 0) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.254	0.141	—	—
	SPTI-9	ARIMA (0, 1, 0) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.328	0.284	—	—
	SPTI-12	ARIMA (0, 1, 0) (0, 0, 1)₁₂	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	−0.656	—

Multan	SPTI-1	ARIMA (1, 0, 2) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	0.941	—	—	—	—	−0.861	−0.116	—	—	0.213	0.149	—	—
	SPTI-3	ARIMA (4, 0, 4) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	−0.161	—1.031	−0.002	−0.091	—	0.941	1.761	0.852	0.676	0.187	—	—	—
	SPTI-6	ARIMA (2, 0, 4) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	0.023	−0.120	—	—	—	0.922	0.956	0.897	0.861	0.106	0.151	—	—
	SPTI-9	ARIMA (0, 1, 0) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.184	0.202	—	—
	SPTI-12	ARIMA (2, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)₁₂	—	0.251	−0.05	—	—	—	−0.296	—	—	—	−0.130	—	−0.495	—

Muzaffarabad	SPTI-1	ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	0.094	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.251	—	—	—
	SPTI-3	ARIMA (5, 0, 1) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	1.629	−0.749	−0.450	0.807	−0.365	−0.760	—	—	—	0.248	0.241	—	—
	SPTI-6	ARIMA (3, 0, 1) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	1.509	−0.561	−0.067	—	—	−0.553	—	—	—	0.206	0.150	—	—
	SPTI-9	ARIMA (4, 0, 4) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	0.561	−0.076	−0.551	0.656	—	0.427	0.489	0.823	0.039	0.188	0.324	—	—
	SPTI-12	ARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 1)₁₂	—	0.972	—	—	—	—	0.036	0.066	—	—	−0.030	—	−0.690	—

Sialkot	SPTI-1	ARIMA (2, 0, 2) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	0.895	−0.854	—	—	—	−0.769	0.714	—	—	0.231	0.251	—	—
	SPTI-3	ARIMA (3, 0, 2) (2, 1, 0)₁₂	0.001	−0.024	0.026	−0.042	—	—	0.697	0.457	—	—	−0.619	−0.320	—	—
	SPTI-6	ARIMA (2, 0, 2) (2, 0, 0)₁₂	—	1.605	−0.686	—	—	—	−0.768	0.078	—	—	−0.680	−0310	—	—
	SPTI-9	ARIMA (2, 0, 2) (1, 1, 0)₁₂	0.001	1.857	−0.891	—	—	—	—1.059	0.180	—	—	−0.472	—	—	—
	SPTI-12	ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (0, 0, 2)₁₂	—	0.968	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	−0.665	0.077