Application of Extreme Learning Machine Algorithm for Drought Forecasting

Table 7

Prediction performance of ELM, MLP, and ARIMA algorithms using training data for SPTI with 1–12 month time scales at selected meteorological stations.

Station		RMSE			KGE			WI			MAE			MAPE (%age)
		ELM	MLP	ARIMA	ELM	MLP	ARIMA	ELM	MLP	ARIMA	ELM	MLP	ARIMA	ELM	MLP	ARIMA
SPTI-1	Astore	0.523	0.836	0.841	0.712	0.517	0.349	0.909	0.748	0.664	0.395	0.660	0.671	470.151	9318.622	633.715
	Chhor	0.387	0.598	0.632	0.719	0.533	0.333	0.910	0.771	0.663	0.281	0.449	0.500	445.292	335.141	749.993
	Chitral	0.374	0.680	0.762	0.838	0.680	0.671	0.960	0.847	0.825	0.272	0.533	0.582	259.592	161.335	324.699
	Kalat	0.402	0.624	0.681	0.721	0.556	0.308	0.907	0.778	0.643	0.302	0.492	0.558	517.220	1870.592	903.828
	Kohat	0.583	0.948	0.967	0.642	0.383	0.130	0.880	0.666	0.490	0.461	0.766	0.776	608.050	856.133	331.864
	Mianwali	0.416	0.734	0.823	0.735	0.503	0.308	0.918	0.748	0.625	0.323	0.588	0.679	675.666	978.739	576.477
	Multan	0.489	0.782	0.795	0.613	0.292	0.319	0.872	0.616	0.425	0.382	0.637	0.674	592.744	365.638	1005.901
	Muzaffarabad	0.537	0.796	0.837	0.571	0.425	0.110	0.891	0.722	0.600	0.412	0.636	0.655	660.512	348.687	834.538
	Sialkot	0.523	0.774	0.822	0.755	0.592	0.404	0.923	0.799	0.708	0.412	0.627	0.662	436.879	238.422	380.266
SPTI-3	Astore	0.305	0.506	0.558	0.922	0.872	0.847	0.978	0.939	0.925	0.218	0.377	0.425	270.129	115.508	396.597
	Chhor	0.275	0.431	0.474	0.905	0.834	0.781	0.970	0.923	0.905	0.190	0.305	0.356	266.512	126.178	351.577
	Chitral	0.252	0.403	0.461	0.950	0.917	0.902	0.985	0.961	0.951	0.177	0.296	0.345	89.236	46.108	128.119
	Kalat	0.342	0.504	0.543	0.902	0.850	0.824	0.967	0.927	0.914	0.235	0.362	0.403	202.446	93.793	164.865
	Kohat	0.395	0.580	0.625	0.874	0.811	0.709	0.959	0.710	0.880	0.291	0.431	0.473	206.435	125.313	242.491
	Mianwali	0.330	0.539	0.632	0.908	0.833	0.772	0.972	0.921	0.889	0.238	0.394	0.472	180.319	76.808	163.529
	Multan	0.416	0.660	0.684	0.863	0.746	0639	0.952	0.877	0.843	0.295	0.485	0.522	196.750	92.480	175.258
	Muzaffarabad	0.348	0.522	0.557	0.825	0.820	0.522	0.964	0.917	0.894	0.263	0.388	0.428	249.060	189.263	490.751
	Sialkot	0.317	0.476	0.531	0.763	0756	0.801	0.970	0.927	0.907	0.229	0.355	0.408	230.092	557.723	263.315
SPTI-6	Astore	0.287	0.351	0.455	0.945	0.912	0.894	0.991	0.981	0.949	0.198	0.248	0.347	75.918	86.424	129.332
	Chhor	0.255	0.353	0.430	0.939	0.916	0.859	0.979	0.960	0.936	0.155	0.229	0.307	98.630	131.632	181.744
	Chitral	0.247	0.299	0.402	0.964	0.955	0.925	0.986	0.978	0.962	0.167	0.211	0.306	81.651	52.158	131.476
	Kalat	0.316	0.380	0.439	0.956	0.942	0.897	0.993	0.976	0.952	0.193	0.240	0.301	79.513	300.351	238.315
	Kohat	0.883	0.455	0.507	0.922	0.957	0.823	0.968	0.983	0.930	0.695	0.313	0.370	173.514	253.266	703.016
	Mianwali	0.319	0.409	0.488	0.912	0.898	0.866	0.972	0.953	0.933	0.218	0.272	0.332	209.504	98.576	422.293
	Multan	0.382	0.478	0.481	0.922	0.872	0.841	0.993	0.963	0.937	0.264	0.318	0.337	179.676	99.793	136.787
	Muzaffarabad	0.390	0.471	0.527	0.885	0.753	0.343	0.959	0.944	0.914	0.278	0.337	0.395	158.979	114.439	364.869
	Sialkot	0.298	0.375	0.432	0.889	0.882	0.691	0.975	0.959	0.944	0.199	0.249	0.314	117.078	97.213	149.507
SPTI-9	Astore	0.288	0.346	0.434	0.949	0.936	0.874	0.980	0.971	0.951	0.197	0.248	0.309	76.933	62.029	194.755
	Chhor	0.283	0.355	0.433	0.943	0.910	0.764	0.977	0.951	0.907	0.158	0.221	0.289	150.828	92.464	129.091
	Chitral	0.263	0.308	0.443	0.958	0.955	0.914	0.984	0.979	0.957	0.185	0.222	0.319	116.527	58.645	86.048
	Kalat	0.284	0.344	0.409	0.951	0.945	0.927	0.982	0.974	0.963	0.169	0.210	0.241	115.838	171.454	201.090
	Kohat	0.318	0.371	0.415	0.942	0.765	0.846	0.975	0.875	0.939	0.220	0.259	0.302	89.845	123.001	117.730
	Mianwali	0.264	0.307	0.388	0.948	0.948	0.916	0.982	0.975	0.961	0.184	0.219	0.277	466.118	96.627	164.084
	Multan	0.366	0.436	0.547	0.928	0.905	0.862	0.968	0.953	0.928	0.247	0.294	0.352	143.634	90.969	124.937
	Muzaffarabad	0.323	0.385	0.471	0.938	0.921	0.849	0.975	0.964	0.941	0.240	0.289	0.357	180.985	107.083	712.336
	Sialkot	0.298	0.334	0.423	0.947	0.938	0.895	0.976	0.970	0.951	0.202	0.234	0.310	121.539	1223.05	552.815
SPTI-12	Astore	0.311	0.336	0.300	0.951	0.945	0.938	0.973	0.977	0.978	0.203	0.216	0.204	115.137	158.271	131.494
	Chhor	0.302	0.340	0.302	0.946	0.933	0.864	0.974	0.967	0.973	0.151	0.154	0.158	97.432	241.040	60.678
	Chitral	0.348	0.372	0.340	0.940	0.936	0.923	0.971	0.968	0.973	0.214	0.218	0.213	94.942	83.428	144.242
	Kalat	0.240	0.284	0.257	0.973	0.968	0.966	0.989	0.985	0.987	0.122	0.131	0.124	51.690	59.213	457.499
	Kohat	0.301	0.342	0.302	0.952	0.944	0.939	0.978	0.972	0.978	0.203	0.224	0.204	146.081	78.430	131.950
	Mianwali	0.254	0.277	0.254	0.968	0.959	0.328	0.985	0.982	0.984	0.169	0.180	0.167	97.518	94.950	70.970
	Multan	0.342	0.383	0.362	0.935	0.814	0.899	0.957	0.813	0.962	0.216	0.229	0.225	412.644	80.412	142.043
	Muzaffarabad	0.344	0.370	0.335	0.941	0.935	0.927	0.972	0.968	0.972	0.246	0.260	0.242	111.260	90.649	165.662
	Sialkot	0.329	0.364	0.329	0.938	0.932	0.911	0.972	0.966	0.971	0.209	0.224	0.213	108.491	114.554	92.435