Research Article
Application of Extreme Learning Machine Algorithm for Drought Forecasting
Table 7
Prediction performance of ELM, MLP, and ARIMA algorithms using training data for SPTI with 1–12 month time scales at selected meteorological stations.
| Station | RMSE | KGE | WI | MAE | MAPE (%age) | ELM | MLP | ARIMA | ELM | MLP | ARIMA | ELM | MLP | ARIMA | ELM | MLP | ARIMA | ELM | MLP | ARIMA |
| SPTI-1 | Astore | 0.523 | 0.836 | 0.841 | 0.712 | 0.517 | 0.349 | 0.909 | 0.748 | 0.664 | 0.395 | 0.660 | 0.671 | 470.151 | 9318.622 | 633.715 | Chhor | 0.387 | 0.598 | 0.632 | 0.719 | 0.533 | 0.333 | 0.910 | 0.771 | 0.663 | 0.281 | 0.449 | 0.500 | 445.292 | 335.141 | 749.993 | Chitral | 0.374 | 0.680 | 0.762 | 0.838 | 0.680 | 0.671 | 0.960 | 0.847 | 0.825 | 0.272 | 0.533 | 0.582 | 259.592 | 161.335 | 324.699 | Kalat | 0.402 | 0.624 | 0.681 | 0.721 | 0.556 | 0.308 | 0.907 | 0.778 | 0.643 | 0.302 | 0.492 | 0.558 | 517.220 | 1870.592 | 903.828 | Kohat | 0.583 | 0.948 | 0.967 | 0.642 | 0.383 | 0.130 | 0.880 | 0.666 | 0.490 | 0.461 | 0.766 | 0.776 | 608.050 | 856.133 | 331.864 | Mianwali | 0.416 | 0.734 | 0.823 | 0.735 | 0.503 | 0.308 | 0.918 | 0.748 | 0.625 | 0.323 | 0.588 | 0.679 | 675.666 | 978.739 | 576.477 | Multan | 0.489 | 0.782 | 0.795 | 0.613 | 0.292 | 0.319 | 0.872 | 0.616 | 0.425 | 0.382 | 0.637 | 0.674 | 592.744 | 365.638 | 1005.901 | Muzaffarabad | 0.537 | 0.796 | 0.837 | 0.571 | 0.425 | 0.110 | 0.891 | 0.722 | 0.600 | 0.412 | 0.636 | 0.655 | 660.512 | 348.687 | 834.538 | Sialkot | 0.523 | 0.774 | 0.822 | 0.755 | 0.592 | 0.404 | 0.923 | 0.799 | 0.708 | 0.412 | 0.627 | 0.662 | 436.879 | 238.422 | 380.266 |
| SPTI-3 | Astore | 0.305 | 0.506 | 0.558 | 0.922 | 0.872 | 0.847 | 0.978 | 0.939 | 0.925 | 0.218 | 0.377 | 0.425 | 270.129 | 115.508 | 396.597 | Chhor | 0.275 | 0.431 | 0.474 | 0.905 | 0.834 | 0.781 | 0.970 | 0.923 | 0.905 | 0.190 | 0.305 | 0.356 | 266.512 | 126.178 | 351.577 | Chitral | 0.252 | 0.403 | 0.461 | 0.950 | 0.917 | 0.902 | 0.985 | 0.961 | 0.951 | 0.177 | 0.296 | 0.345 | 89.236 | 46.108 | 128.119 | Kalat | 0.342 | 0.504 | 0.543 | 0.902 | 0.850 | 0.824 | 0.967 | 0.927 | 0.914 | 0.235 | 0.362 | 0.403 | 202.446 | 93.793 | 164.865 | Kohat | 0.395 | 0.580 | 0.625 | 0.874 | 0.811 | 0.709 | 0.959 | 0.710 | 0.880 | 0.291 | 0.431 | 0.473 | 206.435 | 125.313 | 242.491 | Mianwali | 0.330 | 0.539 | 0.632 | 0.908 | 0.833 | 0.772 | 0.972 | 0.921 | 0.889 | 0.238 | 0.394 | 0.472 | 180.319 | 76.808 | 163.529 | Multan | 0.416 | 0.660 | 0.684 | 0.863 | 0.746 | 0639 | 0.952 | 0.877 | 0.843 | 0.295 | 0.485 | 0.522 | 196.750 | 92.480 | 175.258 | Muzaffarabad | 0.348 | 0.522 | 0.557 | 0.825 | 0.820 | 0.522 | 0.964 | 0.917 | 0.894 | 0.263 | 0.388 | 0.428 | 249.060 | 189.263 | 490.751 | Sialkot | 0.317 | 0.476 | 0.531 | 0.763 | 0756 | 0.801 | 0.970 | 0.927 | 0.907 | 0.229 | 0.355 | 0.408 | 230.092 | 557.723 | 263.315 |
| SPTI-6 | Astore | 0.287 | 0.351 | 0.455 | 0.945 | 0.912 | 0.894 | 0.991 | 0.981 | 0.949 | 0.198 | 0.248 | 0.347 | 75.918 | 86.424 | 129.332 | Chhor | 0.255 | 0.353 | 0.430 | 0.939 | 0.916 | 0.859 | 0.979 | 0.960 | 0.936 | 0.155 | 0.229 | 0.307 | 98.630 | 131.632 | 181.744 | Chitral | 0.247 | 0.299 | 0.402 | 0.964 | 0.955 | 0.925 | 0.986 | 0.978 | 0.962 | 0.167 | 0.211 | 0.306 | 81.651 | 52.158 | 131.476 | Kalat | 0.316 | 0.380 | 0.439 | 0.956 | 0.942 | 0.897 | 0.993 | 0.976 | 0.952 | 0.193 | 0.240 | 0.301 | 79.513 | 300.351 | 238.315 | Kohat | 0.883 | 0.455 | 0.507 | 0.922 | 0.957 | 0.823 | 0.968 | 0.983 | 0.930 | 0.695 | 0.313 | 0.370 | 173.514 | 253.266 | 703.016 | Mianwali | 0.319 | 0.409 | 0.488 | 0.912 | 0.898 | 0.866 | 0.972 | 0.953 | 0.933 | 0.218 | 0.272 | 0.332 | 209.504 | 98.576 | 422.293 | Multan | 0.382 | 0.478 | 0.481 | 0.922 | 0.872 | 0.841 | 0.993 | 0.963 | 0.937 | 0.264 | 0.318 | 0.337 | 179.676 | 99.793 | 136.787 | Muzaffarabad | 0.390 | 0.471 | 0.527 | 0.885 | 0.753 | 0.343 | 0.959 | 0.944 | 0.914 | 0.278 | 0.337 | 0.395 | 158.979 | 114.439 | 364.869 | Sialkot | 0.298 | 0.375 | 0.432 | 0.889 | 0.882 | 0.691 | 0.975 | 0.959 | 0.944 | 0.199 | 0.249 | 0.314 | 117.078 | 97.213 | 149.507 |
| SPTI-9 | Astore | 0.288 | 0.346 | 0.434 | 0.949 | 0.936 | 0.874 | 0.980 | 0.971 | 0.951 | 0.197 | 0.248 | 0.309 | 76.933 | 62.029 | 194.755 | Chhor | 0.283 | 0.355 | 0.433 | 0.943 | 0.910 | 0.764 | 0.977 | 0.951 | 0.907 | 0.158 | 0.221 | 0.289 | 150.828 | 92.464 | 129.091 | Chitral | 0.263 | 0.308 | 0.443 | 0.958 | 0.955 | 0.914 | 0.984 | 0.979 | 0.957 | 0.185 | 0.222 | 0.319 | 116.527 | 58.645 | 86.048 | Kalat | 0.284 | 0.344 | 0.409 | 0.951 | 0.945 | 0.927 | 0.982 | 0.974 | 0.963 | 0.169 | 0.210 | 0.241 | 115.838 | 171.454 | 201.090 | Kohat | 0.318 | 0.371 | 0.415 | 0.942 | 0.765 | 0.846 | 0.975 | 0.875 | 0.939 | 0.220 | 0.259 | 0.302 | 89.845 | 123.001 | 117.730 | Mianwali | 0.264 | 0.307 | 0.388 | 0.948 | 0.948 | 0.916 | 0.982 | 0.975 | 0.961 | 0.184 | 0.219 | 0.277 | 466.118 | 96.627 | 164.084 | Multan | 0.366 | 0.436 | 0.547 | 0.928 | 0.905 | 0.862 | 0.968 | 0.953 | 0.928 | 0.247 | 0.294 | 0.352 | 143.634 | 90.969 | 124.937 | Muzaffarabad | 0.323 | 0.385 | 0.471 | 0.938 | 0.921 | 0.849 | 0.975 | 0.964 | 0.941 | 0.240 | 0.289 | 0.357 | 180.985 | 107.083 | 712.336 | Sialkot | 0.298 | 0.334 | 0.423 | 0.947 | 0.938 | 0.895 | 0.976 | 0.970 | 0.951 | 0.202 | 0.234 | 0.310 | 121.539 | 1223.05 | 552.815 |
| SPTI-12 | Astore | 0.311 | 0.336 | 0.300 | 0.951 | 0.945 | 0.938 | 0.973 | 0.977 | 0.978 | 0.203 | 0.216 | 0.204 | 115.137 | 158.271 | 131.494 | Chhor | 0.302 | 0.340 | 0.302 | 0.946 | 0.933 | 0.864 | 0.974 | 0.967 | 0.973 | 0.151 | 0.154 | 0.158 | 97.432 | 241.040 | 60.678 | Chitral | 0.348 | 0.372 | 0.340 | 0.940 | 0.936 | 0.923 | 0.971 | 0.968 | 0.973 | 0.214 | 0.218 | 0.213 | 94.942 | 83.428 | 144.242 | Kalat | 0.240 | 0.284 | 0.257 | 0.973 | 0.968 | 0.966 | 0.989 | 0.985 | 0.987 | 0.122 | 0.131 | 0.124 | 51.690 | 59.213 | 457.499 | Kohat | 0.301 | 0.342 | 0.302 | 0.952 | 0.944 | 0.939 | 0.978 | 0.972 | 0.978 | 0.203 | 0.224 | 0.204 | 146.081 | 78.430 | 131.950 | Mianwali | 0.254 | 0.277 | 0.254 | 0.968 | 0.959 | 0.328 | 0.985 | 0.982 | 0.984 | 0.169 | 0.180 | 0.167 | 97.518 | 94.950 | 70.970 | Multan | 0.342 | 0.383 | 0.362 | 0.935 | 0.814 | 0.899 | 0.957 | 0.813 | 0.962 | 0.216 | 0.229 | 0.225 | 412.644 | 80.412 | 142.043 | Muzaffarabad | 0.344 | 0.370 | 0.335 | 0.941 | 0.935 | 0.927 | 0.972 | 0.968 | 0.972 | 0.246 | 0.260 | 0.242 | 111.260 | 90.649 | 165.662 | Sialkot | 0.329 | 0.364 | 0.329 | 0.938 | 0.932 | 0.911 | 0.972 | 0.966 | 0.971 | 0.209 | 0.224 | 0.213 | 108.491 | 114.554 | 92.435 |
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