Application of Extreme Learning Machine Algorithm for Drought Forecasting

Table 9

Forecast performance of ELM, MLP, and ARIMA algorithms for SPTI with 1–12 month time scales at nine meteorological stations.

Station		RMSE			KGE			WI			MAE			MAPE (%age)
		ELM	MLP	ARIMA	ELM	MLP	ARIMA	ELM	MLP	ARIMA	ELM	MLP	ARIMA	ELM	MLP	ARIMA
SPTI-1	Astore	0.688	1.034	0.893	0.988	0.771	0.671	0.997	0.897	0.884	0.798	0.855	0.865	247.353	251.284	364.431
	Chhor	0.579	0.600	0.559	0.871	0.712	0.541	0.999	0.730	0.663	0.531	0.447	0.468	559.287	269.288	396.060
	Chitral	0.643	0.647	0.690	0.909	0.685	0.678	0.979	0.836	0.823	0.495	0.510	0.520	142.102	193.952	414.532
	Kalat	0.776	0.832	0.727	0.952	0.779	0.767	0.998	0.966	0.976	0.676	0.731	0.684	500.369	824.503	616.762
	Kohat	0.956	0.970	1.031	0.979	0.930	0.900	0.999	0.992	0.954	0.791	0.815	0.869	528.066	1136.164	268.277
	Mianwali	0.773	0.984	0.801	0.961	0.753	0.690	0.998	0.954	0.923	0.652	0.818	0.655	309.146	369.444	860.231
	Multan	0.714	0.666	0.824	0.986	0.428	0.687	0.997	0.740	0.885	0.612	0.577	0.706	545.568	1291.204	3958.975
	Muzaffarabad	0.764	0.743	0.724	0.937	0.877	0.673	0.997	0.966	0.994	0.605	0.597	0.553	321.810	3469.574	455.340
	Sialkot	0.720	0.745	0.822	0.931	0.902	0.914	0.995	0.989	0.982	0.554	0.593	0.663	91.037	151.493	269.868
SPTI-3	Astore	0.764	0.896	0.607	0.970	0.744	0.511	0.991	0.865	0.760	0.589	0.735	0.488	797.800	63.992	84.646
	Chhor	0.563	0.503	0.539	0.866	0962	0.678	0.821	0.873	0.871	0.438	0.366	0.385	193.072	159.359	141.894
	Chitral	0.468	0.522	0.514	0.921	0.709	0.820	0.965	0.908	0.918	0.408	0.396	0.405	2354.06	79.394	150.935
	Kalat	0.987	1.247	1.152	0.996	0.858	0.678	0.999	0.956	0.758	0.850	1.067	0.899	329.382	314.217	199.070
	Kohat	0.771	0.775	0.873	0.974	0.965	0.73	0.994	0.993	0.891	0.729	0.668	0.726	116.387	330.497	134.998
	Mianwali	1.104	1.221	1.041	0.997	0.961	0.943	0.997	0.987	0.956	0.914	1.014	0.806	1082.42	561.266	173.703
	Multan	0.801	0.790	0.982	0.894	0.927	0.938	0.999	0.997	0.978	0.660	0.654	0.826	210.083	193.947	210.070
	Muzaffarabad	0.791	0.785	0.777	0.967	0.856	0.873	0.999	0.990	0.996	0.602	0.686	0.601	230.935	809.403	334.650
	Sialkot	0.681	0.725	0.768	0.938	0.924	0.628	0.996	0.977	0.811	0.520	0.532	0.601	265.276	259.027	201.413
SPTI-6	Astore	0.402	0.670	0.482	0.962	0.607	0.541	0.985	0.782	0.733	0.492	0.582	0.408	46.301	343.207	37.464
	Chhor	0.819	0.889	0.669	0.910	0.687	0.456	0.998	0.967	0.876	0.702	0.771	0.475	697.320	269.541	73.976
	Chitral	0.374	0.405	0.399	0.961	0.862	0.846	0.984	0.935	0.943	0.308	0.325	0.308	172.828	140.348	140.661
	Kalat	0.972	0.792	1.231	0.965	0.921	0.933	0.993	0.884	0.976	0.807	0.666	1.022	1364.65	335.608	184.772
	Kohat	0.957	0.930	0.869	0.924	0.876	0.759	0.990	0.948	0.918	0.764	0.841	0.719	89.183	301.444	109.716
	Mianwali	1.411	2.148	1.457	0.974	0.788	0.885	0.999	0.975	0.987	1.319	1.868	1.145	347.413	215.620	298.005
	Multan	0.783	1.209	1.076	0.931	0.781	0.926	0.999	0.999	0.991	0.673	0.982	0.886	222.776	194.657	173.698
	Muzaffarabad	0.771	1.176	0.872	0.989	0.935	0.893	0.999	0.995	0.981	0.648	0.822	0.695	2458.04	214.159	4533.34
	Sialkot	0.880	0.733	0.656	0.953	0.944	0.928	0.998	0.991	0.994	0.756	0.670	0.557	776.441	532.295	178.914
SPTI-9	Astore	0.634	0.647	0.874	0.968	0.728	0.783	0.990	0.857	0.869	0.496	0.542	0.776	41.230	49.977	101.519
	Chhor	1.134	1.328	0.961	0.949	0.936	0.945	0.994	0.996	0.829	0.944	1.151	0.760	358.134	243.020	584.953
	Chitral	0.372	0.504	0.383	0.953	0.863	0.820	0.984	0.921	0.910	0.322	0.406	0.297	53.696	3157.85	34.444
	Kalat	0.428	1.133	0.782	0.991	0.724	0.845	0.999	0.892	0.935	0.876	0.982	0.713	187.052	360.125	50.731
	Kohat	1.032	1.042	0.836	0.941	0.932	0.774	0.992	0.987	0.962	0.840	0.791	0.617	98.190	87.813	72.893
	Mianwali	1.350	2.062	1.457	0.970	0.924	0.616	0.998	0.982	0.964	1.429	1.895	1.145	253.908	162.066	298.005
	Multan	0.746	0.690	1.148	0.973	0.873	0.898	0.999	0.998	0.999	0.609	0.595	0.946	1139.22	1061.42	134.464
	Muzaffarabad	0.763	0.800	0.761	0.985	0.948	0.938	0.999	0.979	0.990	0.634	0.660	0.592	78.798	144.126	88.432
	Sialkot	0.765	0.681	0.839	0.925	0.904	0.851	0.997	0.996	0.985	0.589	0.485	0.655	94.806	227.032	221.098
SPTI-12	Astore	0.258	0.754	1.229	0.962	0.721	0.770	0.992	0.906	0.869	0.215	0.658	1.202	10.936	68.122	187.249
	Chhor	0.670	0.707	0.728	0.987	0.975	0.879	0.996	0.935	0.921	0.566	0.600	0.648	197.918	1307.50	2828.820
	Chitral	0.521	0.524	0.772	0.996	0.747	0.678	0.999	0.922	0.854	0.406	0.413	0.653	38.710	35.631	117.257
	Kalat	1.346	1.216	1.168	0.975	0.994	0.612	0.998	0.998	0.804	1.179	1.026	0.984	1739.84	558.414	343.401
	Kohat	0.615	1.066	0.963	0.981	0.959	0.900	0.997	0.995	0.981	0.860	0.790	0.819	84.522	66.743	144.398
	Mianwali	1.402	1.513	1.484	0.994	0.882	0.775	0.999	0.989	0.837	1.629	1.298	1.273	147.015	180.588	169.143
	Multan	0.561	1.072	0.664	0.995	0.916	0.870	0.998	0.974	0.970	0.434	0.997	0.553	60.976	1233.10	223.381
	Muzaffarabad	0.720	1.117	0.754	0.985	0.756	0.890	0.997	0.899	0.962	0.564	0.780	0.586	49.482	257.156	94.969
	Sialkot	0.793	0.727	0.766	0.945	0.926	0.922	0.993	0.992	0.973	0.630	0.593	0.593	61.040	181.003	1734.785