Research Article
Application of Extreme Learning Machine Algorithm for Drought Forecasting
Table 9
Forecast performance of ELM, MLP, and ARIMA algorithms for SPTI with 1–12 month time scales at nine meteorological stations.
| Station | RMSE | KGE | WI | MAE | MAPE (%age) | ELM | MLP | ARIMA | ELM | MLP | ARIMA | ELM | MLP | ARIMA | ELM | MLP | ARIMA | ELM | MLP | ARIMA |
| SPTI-1 | Astore | 0.688 | 1.034 | 0.893 | 0.988 | 0.771 | 0.671 | 0.997 | 0.897 | 0.884 | 0.798 | 0.855 | 0.865 | 247.353 | 251.284 | 364.431 | Chhor | 0.579 | 0.600 | 0.559 | 0.871 | 0.712 | 0.541 | 0.999 | 0.730 | 0.663 | 0.531 | 0.447 | 0.468 | 559.287 | 269.288 | 396.060 | Chitral | 0.643 | 0.647 | 0.690 | 0.909 | 0.685 | 0.678 | 0.979 | 0.836 | 0.823 | 0.495 | 0.510 | 0.520 | 142.102 | 193.952 | 414.532 | Kalat | 0.776 | 0.832 | 0.727 | 0.952 | 0.779 | 0.767 | 0.998 | 0.966 | 0.976 | 0.676 | 0.731 | 0.684 | 500.369 | 824.503 | 616.762 | Kohat | 0.956 | 0.970 | 1.031 | 0.979 | 0.930 | 0.900 | 0.999 | 0.992 | 0.954 | 0.791 | 0.815 | 0.869 | 528.066 | 1136.164 | 268.277 | Mianwali | 0.773 | 0.984 | 0.801 | 0.961 | 0.753 | 0.690 | 0.998 | 0.954 | 0.923 | 0.652 | 0.818 | 0.655 | 309.146 | 369.444 | 860.231 | Multan | 0.714 | 0.666 | 0.824 | 0.986 | 0.428 | 0.687 | 0.997 | 0.740 | 0.885 | 0.612 | 0.577 | 0.706 | 545.568 | 1291.204 | 3958.975 | Muzaffarabad | 0.764 | 0.743 | 0.724 | 0.937 | 0.877 | 0.673 | 0.997 | 0.966 | 0.994 | 0.605 | 0.597 | 0.553 | 321.810 | 3469.574 | 455.340 | Sialkot | 0.720 | 0.745 | 0.822 | 0.931 | 0.902 | 0.914 | 0.995 | 0.989 | 0.982 | 0.554 | 0.593 | 0.663 | 91.037 | 151.493 | 269.868 |
| SPTI-3 | Astore | 0.764 | 0.896 | 0.607 | 0.970 | 0.744 | 0.511 | 0.991 | 0.865 | 0.760 | 0.589 | 0.735 | 0.488 | 797.800 | 63.992 | 84.646 | Chhor | 0.563 | 0.503 | 0.539 | 0.866 | 0962 | 0.678 | 0.821 | 0.873 | 0.871 | 0.438 | 0.366 | 0.385 | 193.072 | 159.359 | 141.894 | Chitral | 0.468 | 0.522 | 0.514 | 0.921 | 0.709 | 0.820 | 0.965 | 0.908 | 0.918 | 0.408 | 0.396 | 0.405 | 2354.06 | 79.394 | 150.935 | Kalat | 0.987 | 1.247 | 1.152 | 0.996 | 0.858 | 0.678 | 0.999 | 0.956 | 0.758 | 0.850 | 1.067 | 0.899 | 329.382 | 314.217 | 199.070 | Kohat | 0.771 | 0.775 | 0.873 | 0.974 | 0.965 | 0.73 | 0.994 | 0.993 | 0.891 | 0.729 | 0.668 | 0.726 | 116.387 | 330.497 | 134.998 | Mianwali | 1.104 | 1.221 | 1.041 | 0.997 | 0.961 | 0.943 | 0.997 | 0.987 | 0.956 | 0.914 | 1.014 | 0.806 | 1082.42 | 561.266 | 173.703 | Multan | 0.801 | 0.790 | 0.982 | 0.894 | 0.927 | 0.938 | 0.999 | 0.997 | 0.978 | 0.660 | 0.654 | 0.826 | 210.083 | 193.947 | 210.070 | Muzaffarabad | 0.791 | 0.785 | 0.777 | 0.967 | 0.856 | 0.873 | 0.999 | 0.990 | 0.996 | 0.602 | 0.686 | 0.601 | 230.935 | 809.403 | 334.650 | Sialkot | 0.681 | 0.725 | 0.768 | 0.938 | 0.924 | 0.628 | 0.996 | 0.977 | 0.811 | 0.520 | 0.532 | 0.601 | 265.276 | 259.027 | 201.413 |
| SPTI-6 | Astore | 0.402 | 0.670 | 0.482 | 0.962 | 0.607 | 0.541 | 0.985 | 0.782 | 0.733 | 0.492 | 0.582 | 0.408 | 46.301 | 343.207 | 37.464 | Chhor | 0.819 | 0.889 | 0.669 | 0.910 | 0.687 | 0.456 | 0.998 | 0.967 | 0.876 | 0.702 | 0.771 | 0.475 | 697.320 | 269.541 | 73.976 | Chitral | 0.374 | 0.405 | 0.399 | 0.961 | 0.862 | 0.846 | 0.984 | 0.935 | 0.943 | 0.308 | 0.325 | 0.308 | 172.828 | 140.348 | 140.661 | Kalat | 0.972 | 0.792 | 1.231 | 0.965 | 0.921 | 0.933 | 0.993 | 0.884 | 0.976 | 0.807 | 0.666 | 1.022 | 1364.65 | 335.608 | 184.772 | Kohat | 0.957 | 0.930 | 0.869 | 0.924 | 0.876 | 0.759 | 0.990 | 0.948 | 0.918 | 0.764 | 0.841 | 0.719 | 89.183 | 301.444 | 109.716 | Mianwali | 1.411 | 2.148 | 1.457 | 0.974 | 0.788 | 0.885 | 0.999 | 0.975 | 0.987 | 1.319 | 1.868 | 1.145 | 347.413 | 215.620 | 298.005 | Multan | 0.783 | 1.209 | 1.076 | 0.931 | 0.781 | 0.926 | 0.999 | 0.999 | 0.991 | 0.673 | 0.982 | 0.886 | 222.776 | 194.657 | 173.698 | Muzaffarabad | 0.771 | 1.176 | 0.872 | 0.989 | 0.935 | 0.893 | 0.999 | 0.995 | 0.981 | 0.648 | 0.822 | 0.695 | 2458.04 | 214.159 | 4533.34 | Sialkot | 0.880 | 0.733 | 0.656 | 0.953 | 0.944 | 0.928 | 0.998 | 0.991 | 0.994 | 0.756 | 0.670 | 0.557 | 776.441 | 532.295 | 178.914 |
| SPTI-9 | Astore | 0.634 | 0.647 | 0.874 | 0.968 | 0.728 | 0.783 | 0.990 | 0.857 | 0.869 | 0.496 | 0.542 | 0.776 | 41.230 | 49.977 | 101.519 | Chhor | 1.134 | 1.328 | 0.961 | 0.949 | 0.936 | 0.945 | 0.994 | 0.996 | 0.829 | 0.944 | 1.151 | 0.760 | 358.134 | 243.020 | 584.953 | Chitral | 0.372 | 0.504 | 0.383 | 0.953 | 0.863 | 0.820 | 0.984 | 0.921 | 0.910 | 0.322 | 0.406 | 0.297 | 53.696 | 3157.85 | 34.444 | Kalat | 0.428 | 1.133 | 0.782 | 0.991 | 0.724 | 0.845 | 0.999 | 0.892 | 0.935 | 0.876 | 0.982 | 0.713 | 187.052 | 360.125 | 50.731 | Kohat | 1.032 | 1.042 | 0.836 | 0.941 | 0.932 | 0.774 | 0.992 | 0.987 | 0.962 | 0.840 | 0.791 | 0.617 | 98.190 | 87.813 | 72.893 | Mianwali | 1.350 | 2.062 | 1.457 | 0.970 | 0.924 | 0.616 | 0.998 | 0.982 | 0.964 | 1.429 | 1.895 | 1.145 | 253.908 | 162.066 | 298.005 | Multan | 0.746 | 0.690 | 1.148 | 0.973 | 0.873 | 0.898 | 0.999 | 0.998 | 0.999 | 0.609 | 0.595 | 0.946 | 1139.22 | 1061.42 | 134.464 | Muzaffarabad | 0.763 | 0.800 | 0.761 | 0.985 | 0.948 | 0.938 | 0.999 | 0.979 | 0.990 | 0.634 | 0.660 | 0.592 | 78.798 | 144.126 | 88.432 | Sialkot | 0.765 | 0.681 | 0.839 | 0.925 | 0.904 | 0.851 | 0.997 | 0.996 | 0.985 | 0.589 | 0.485 | 0.655 | 94.806 | 227.032 | 221.098 |
| SPTI-12 | Astore | 0.258 | 0.754 | 1.229 | 0.962 | 0.721 | 0.770 | 0.992 | 0.906 | 0.869 | 0.215 | 0.658 | 1.202 | 10.936 | 68.122 | 187.249 | Chhor | 0.670 | 0.707 | 0.728 | 0.987 | 0.975 | 0.879 | 0.996 | 0.935 | 0.921 | 0.566 | 0.600 | 0.648 | 197.918 | 1307.50 | 2828.820 | Chitral | 0.521 | 0.524 | 0.772 | 0.996 | 0.747 | 0.678 | 0.999 | 0.922 | 0.854 | 0.406 | 0.413 | 0.653 | 38.710 | 35.631 | 117.257 | Kalat | 1.346 | 1.216 | 1.168 | 0.975 | 0.994 | 0.612 | 0.998 | 0.998 | 0.804 | 1.179 | 1.026 | 0.984 | 1739.84 | 558.414 | 343.401 | Kohat | 0.615 | 1.066 | 0.963 | 0.981 | 0.959 | 0.900 | 0.997 | 0.995 | 0.981 | 0.860 | 0.790 | 0.819 | 84.522 | 66.743 | 144.398 | Mianwali | 1.402 | 1.513 | 1.484 | 0.994 | 0.882 | 0.775 | 0.999 | 0.989 | 0.837 | 1.629 | 1.298 | 1.273 | 147.015 | 180.588 | 169.143 | Multan | 0.561 | 1.072 | 0.664 | 0.995 | 0.916 | 0.870 | 0.998 | 0.974 | 0.970 | 0.434 | 0.997 | 0.553 | 60.976 | 1233.10 | 223.381 | Muzaffarabad | 0.720 | 1.117 | 0.754 | 0.985 | 0.756 | 0.890 | 0.997 | 0.899 | 0.962 | 0.564 | 0.780 | 0.586 | 49.482 | 257.156 | 94.969 | Sialkot | 0.793 | 0.727 | 0.766 | 0.945 | 0.926 | 0.922 | 0.993 | 0.992 | 0.973 | 0.630 | 0.593 | 0.593 | 61.040 | 181.003 | 1734.785 |
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