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Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Volume 2 (1998), Issue 3, Pages 173-186
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/S1026022698000156

Simulation of land use evolution by discrete events method: Application to “la chaîne des puys” from XV to XVIII Century

1Dept. Agriculture et Espace & CNRS UPRESA 6042, ENITAC, Lempdes F63370, France
2Dept. Sciences de l'Ingénieur, ENITAC, Lempdes F63370, France

Received 22 February 1998

Copyright © 1998 Hindawi Publishing Corporation. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

By using a discrete event method, simulation of land use evolution has been applied to a landscape model of “la ChaÎne des Puys” (French Massif Central) during along period (XV–XVIII centuries). The indications concerning the evolution of land use are in conformity with the observation of actual situations but the dynamic changes are faster than in actual facts. In spite of limitations due to necessary simplifications, it is now established that the discrete event method is efficient to simulate land use evolution during a long period. The model is immediately able to describe actual dynamics and to show sensitive variables with their critical values. Although oversimplified, it shows how far factors such as level of crops production and taxation can influence land use and landscape changes with a more or less lengthy period. In the future, the model should be bettered by introducing other determined and/or stochastic events.