A New Accident Analysis Method Based on Complex Network and Cascading Failure

<table>Illustration for the random network with probability <svg height="15.2875" id="M24" style="vertical-align:-3.50804pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 57.974998 15.2875" width="57.974998" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,10.862)"><path d="M570 304q0 -108 -87 -199q-40 -42 -94.5 -74t-105.5 -43q-41 0 -65 11l-29 -141q-9 -45 -1.5 -58t45.5 -16l26 -2l-5 -29l-241 -10l4 26q51 10 67.5 24t26.5 60l113 520q-54 -20 -89 -41l-7 26q38 28 105 53l11 49q20 25 77 58l8 -7l-17 -77q39 14 102 14q82 0 119 -36
t37 -108zM482 289q0 114 -113 114q-26 0 -66 -7l-70 -327q12 -14 32 -25t39 -11q59 0 118.5 81.5t59.5 174.5z" id="x1D45D"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,14.851,10.862)"><path d="M535 323h-483v50h483v-50zM535 138h-483v50h483v-50z" id="x3D"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,29.555,10.862)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,37.715,10.862)"><path d="M113 -12q-24 0 -39.5 16t-15.5 42q0 24 16 40.5t40 16.5t40 -16.5t16 -40.5q0 -26 -16 -42t-41 -16z" id="x2E"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,41.59,10.862)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,49.75,10.862)"><path d="M153 550l-26 -186q79 31 111 31q90 0 141.5 -51t51.5 -119q0 -93 -89 -166q-85 -69 -173 -71q-32 0 -61.5 11.5t-41.5 23.5q-18 17 -17 34q2 16 22 33q14 9 26 -1q61 -50 124 -50q60 0 93 43.5t33 104.5q0 69 -41.5 110t-121.5 41q-53 0 -102 -20l38 305h286l6 -8
l-26 -65h-233z" id="x35"></path></g>
</svg> for every pair of nodes being connected: <svg height="16.4125" id="M25" style="vertical-align:-3.3907pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 85.349998 16.4125" width="85.349998" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,12.138)"><path d="M857 650l-6 -28q-44 -4 -61.5 -16.5t-29.5 -48.5q-11 -32 -37 -166l-78 -399h-29l-351 537h-4l-56 -276q-24 -120 -24 -164q0 -35 17.5 -46t75.5 -15l-6 -28h-245l7 28q41 2 62 14t31 44q10 30 41 171l53 245q8 44 6.5 60.5t-14.5 33.5q-10 15 -27 19.5t-64 6.5l6 28h153
l350 -516h5l48 257q25 131 25 171q0 34 -17.5 45t-77.5 15l7 28h240z" id="x1D441"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,14.919,12.138)"><path d="M300 -147l-18 -23q-106 71 -159 185.5t-53 254.5v1q0 139 53 252.5t159 186.5l18 -24q-74 -62 -115.5 -173.5t-41.5 -242.5q0 -130 41.5 -242.5t115.5 -174.5z" id="x28"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,20.801,12.138)"><path d="M457 332q0 -81 -41 -161.5t-105.5 -131.5t-129.5 -51q-46 0 -79 30.5t-33 86.5q0 18 7 51q18 95 46 187q6 19 6 33q0 7 -7 7q-24 0 -78 -64l-20 23q32 48 73 77t78 29q33 0 33 -46q0 -38 -10 -70q-28 -92 -39 -152q-7 -38 -7 -57q0 -78 69 -78q68 0 118 75.5t50 194.5
q0 43 -12 57q-11 12 -11 24q0 19 15 35.5t34 16.5q18 0 30.5 -34.5t12.5 -81.5z" id="x1D463"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,28.162,16.212)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,34.5,12.138)"><path d="M275 270q0 -296 -211 -440l-19 23q75 62 116.5 174t41.5 243t-42 243t-116 173l19 24q211 -144 211 -440z" id="x29"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,45.09,12.138)"><path d="M535 323h-483v50h483v-50zM535 138h-483v50h483v-50z" id="x3D"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,59.794,12.138)"><path d="M293 -169q-145 0 -145 128q0 35 4 106t3 104q0 17 -2 28t-10 25.5t-28 23t-51 10.5v29q31 2 51 10.5t28 23t10 25.5t2 28q0 31 -4 101t-3 104q0 132 145 132v-28q-51 -7 -67.5 -30t-16.5 -63q0 -32 6.5 -99.5t6.5 -100.5q0 -97 -83 -115v-4q83 -20 83 -117
q0 -34 -6.5 -99.5t-6.5 -96.5q0 -41 16.5 -65.5t67.5 -31.5v-28z" id="x7B"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,65.693,12.138)"><path d="M457 332q0 -81 -41 -161.5t-105.5 -131.5t-129.5 -51q-46 0 -79 30.5t-33 86.5q0 18 7 51q18 95 46 187q6 19 6 33q0 7 -7 7q-24 0 -78 -64l-20 23q32 48 73 77t78 29q33 0 33 -46q0 -38 -10 -70q-28 -92 -39 -152q-7 -38 -7 -57q0 -78 69 -78q68 0 118 75.5t50 194.5
q0 43 -12 57q-11 12 -11 24q0 19 15 35.5t34 16.5q18 0 30.5 -34.5t12.5 -81.5z" id="x1D463"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,73.062,16.212)"><path d="M249 635q70 0 116 -43t46 -105q0 -46 -28 -80q-22 -25 -80 -64q62 -35 97 -75t35 -99q0 -81 -63 -131t-135 -50q-83 0 -137.5 45.5t-54.5 123.5q0 52 45 95q29 28 89 64q-109 62 -109 155q0 66 50.5 115t128.5 49zM238 603q-42 0 -67.5 -31t-25.5 -72q0 -50 32.5 -79.5
t98.5 -62.5q61 48 61 124q0 59 -29.5 90t-69.5 31zM248 20q46 0 76.5 33.5t30.5 89.5q0 50 -39 85.5t-110 71.5q-81 -54 -81 -137q0 -67 35.5 -105t87.5 -38z" id="x38"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,79.388,12.138)"><path d="M283 255q-31 -2 -51 -10.5t-28 -23.5t-10 -27t-2 -30q0 -28 4 -97.5t4 -107.5q0 -128 -146 -128v28q50 7 67.5 31t17.5 63q0 33 -7 100t-7 98q0 96 84 117v4q-84 20 -84 115q0 34 7 102.5t7 98.5q0 40 -17.5 63t-67.5 30v28q28 0 50 -4t45.5 -16.5t37 -40t13.5 -68.5
q0 -37 -4 -106.5t-4 -98.5q0 -18 2 -30t10 -27t28 -23.5t51 -10.5v-29z" id="x7D"></path></g>
</svg> and <svg height="19.1" id="M26" style="vertical-align:-3.3907pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 105.7625 19.1" width="105.7625" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,1.45,11.2)"><path d="M846 629q-74 -89 -217 -89q-74 0 -219 29q-124 23 -192 23q-102 0 -203 -60l-15 26q93 89 226 89q79 0 210 -28q131 -24 204 -24q110 0 191 60z" id="xF5C13"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,14.813)"><path d="M857 650l-6 -28q-44 -4 -61.5 -16.5t-29.5 -48.5q-11 -32 -37 -166l-78 -399h-29l-351 537h-4l-56 -276q-24 -120 -24 -164q0 -35 17.5 -46t75.5 -15l-6 -28h-245l7 28q41 2 62 14t31 44q10 30 41 171l53 245q8 44 6.5 60.5t-14.5 33.5q-10 15 -27 19.5t-64 6.5l6 28h153
l350 -516h5l48 257q25 131 25 171q0 34 -17.5 45t-77.5 15l7 28h240z" id="x1D441"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,14.919,14.813)"><path d="M300 -147l-18 -23q-106 71 -159 185.5t-53 254.5v1q0 139 53 252.5t159 186.5l18 -24q-74 -62 -115.5 -173.5t-41.5 -242.5q0 -130 41.5 -242.5t115.5 -174.5z" id="x28"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,20.801,14.813)"><path d="M457 332q0 -81 -41 -161.5t-105.5 -131.5t-129.5 -51q-46 0 -79 30.5t-33 86.5q0 18 7 51q18 95 46 187q6 19 6 33q0 7 -7 7q-24 0 -78 -64l-20 23q32 48 73 77t78 29q33 0 33 -46q0 -38 -10 -70q-28 -92 -39 -152q-7 -38 -7 -57q0 -78 69 -78q68 0 118 75.5t50 194.5
q0 43 -12 57q-11 12 -11 24q0 19 15 35.5t34 16.5q18 0 30.5 -34.5t12.5 -81.5z" id="x1D463"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,28.162,18.9)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,34.5,14.813)"><path d="M275 270q0 -296 -211 -440l-19 23q75 62 116.5 174t41.5 243t-42 243t-116 173l19 24q211 -144 211 -440z" id="x29"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,45.09,14.813)"><path d="M535 323h-483v50h483v-50zM535 138h-483v50h483v-50z" id="x3D"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,59.794,14.813)"><path d="M293 -169q-145 0 -145 128q0 35 4 106t3 104q0 17 -2 28t-10 25.5t-28 23t-51 10.5v29q31 2 51 10.5t28 23t10 25.5t2 28q0 31 -4 101t-3 104q0 132 145 132v-28q-51 -7 -67.5 -30t-16.5 -63q0 -32 6.5 -99.5t6.5 -100.5q0 -97 -83 -115v-4q83 -20 83 -117
q0 -34 -6.5 -99.5t-6.5 -96.5q0 -41 16.5 -65.5t67.5 -31.5v-28z" id="x7B"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,65.693,14.813)"><path d="M457 332q0 -81 -41 -161.5t-105.5 -131.5t-129.5 -51q-46 0 -79 30.5t-33 86.5q0 18 7 51q18 95 46 187q6 19 6 33q0 7 -7 7q-24 0 -78 -64l-20 23q32 48 73 77t78 29q33 0 33 -46q0 -38 -10 -70q-28 -92 -39 -152q-7 -38 -7 -57q0 -78 69 -78q68 0 118 75.5t50 194.5
q0 43 -12 57q-11 12 -11 24q0 19 15 35.5t34 16.5q18 0 30.5 -34.5t12.5 -81.5z" id="x1D463"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,73.062,18.9)"><path d="M137 343l67 33q37 17 63 17q79 0 129.5 -53t50.5 -131q0 -92 -58 -156.5t-147 -64.5t-147 68t-58 182q0 63 17 119t43 95.5t61.5 72t69 52t67.5 31.5q62 22 128 33l6 -32q-56 -11 -108 -35q-149 -71 -184 -231zM227 337q-47 0 -95 -27q-6 -23 -6 -70q0 -93 36 -155.5
t96 -62.5q53 0 78 45.5t25 105.5q0 68 -35 116t-99 48z" id="x36"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,79.388,14.813)"><path d="M95 130q31 0 61 -30t30 -78q0 -53 -38 -87.5t-93 -51.5l-11 29q77 31 77 85q0 26 -17.5 43t-44.5 24q-4 0 -8.5 6.5t-4.5 17.5q0 18 15 30t34 12z" id="x2C"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,86.085,14.813)"><path d="M457 332q0 -81 -41 -161.5t-105.5 -131.5t-129.5 -51q-46 0 -79 30.5t-33 86.5q0 18 7 51q18 95 46 187q6 19 6 33q0 7 -7 7q-24 0 -78 -64l-20 23q32 48 73 77t78 29q33 0 33 -46q0 -38 -10 -70q-28 -92 -39 -152q-7 -38 -7 -57q0 -78 69 -78q68 0 118 75.5t50 194.5
q0 43 -12 57q-11 12 -11 24q0 19 15 35.5t34 16.5q18 0 30.5 -34.5t12.5 -81.5z" id="x1D463"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,93.462,18.9)"><path d="M447 623l8 -12l-283 -613l-74 -10l-7 11q174 283 297 551h-216q-48 0 -62.5 -12t-33.5 -63h-29q10 60 18 148h382z" id="x37"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,99.8,14.813)"><path d="M283 255q-31 -2 -51 -10.5t-28 -23.5t-10 -27t-2 -30q0 -28 4 -97.5t4 -107.5q0 -128 -146 -128v28q50 7 67.5 31t17.5 63q0 33 -7 100t-7 98q0 96 84 117v4q-84 20 -84 115q0 34 7 102.5t7 98.5q0 40 -17.5 63t-67.5 30v28q28 0 50 -4t45.5 -16.5t37 -40t13.5 -68.5
q0 -37 -4 -106.5t-4 -98.5q0 -18 2 -30t10 -27t28 -23.5t51 -10.5v-29z" id="x7D"></path></g>
</svg>.</table>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

fig2

Figure 2

Figure 2: A New Accident Analysis Method Based on Complex Network and Cascading Failure 