Incorporating Overconfidence into Real Option Decision-Making Model of Metal Mineral Resources Mining Project

Table 5

The comparison of the evaluation results between the DCF and the proposed model.

Method	Feature	Trigger value 𝑉^∗𝑜	Option value 𝐹(𝑉^∗𝑜)	Investment decision
Traditional DCF	Ignoring uncertainty and investment flexibility	9.300 × 10^9	—	Make investment immediately
Proposed model (𝜙=0.5)	Incorporating uncertainty and investment flexibility into the model	5.073 × 10^11	4.980 × 10^11	Delay investment