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Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Volume 2015, Article ID 543029, 13 pages
Research Article

Global Dynamics and Applications of an Epidemiological Model for Hepatitis C Virus Transmission in China

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China

Received 12 November 2014; Accepted 10 January 2015

Academic Editor: Jinde Cao

Copyright © 2015 Mingwang Shen et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


An epidemiological model is proposed and studied to understand the transmission dynamics and prevalence of HCV infection in China. Theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproduction number provides a threshold value determining whether the disease dies out or not. Two Lyapunov functions are constructed to prove the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and the endemic equilibria, respectively. Based on data reported by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China, the basic reproduction number is estimated as approximately , which is much less than that for the model when a treatment strategy is not considered. An ever-increasing HCV infection is predicted in the near future. Numerical simulations, performed to investigate the potential effect of antiviral treatment, show that increasing the treatment cure rate and enlarging the treatment rate for patients at the chronic stage remain effective in reducing the number of new infections and the equilibrium prevalence. The finding suggests that treatment measures are significantly beneficial for disease control in terms of reducing new infections and, in particular, more attention should be paid to treatment for patients at the chronic stage.