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Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Volume 2016 (2016), Article ID 2593698, 7 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/2593698
Research Article

Modeling the Frequency of Cyclists’ Red-Light Running Behavior Using Bayesian PG Model and PLN Model

1Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban ITS, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, School of Transportation, Southeast University, Si Pai Lou No. 2, Nanjing 210096, China
2School of Highway, Chang’an University, Middle of Nanerhuan Road, Xi’an 710064, China
3Hualan Design & Consulting Group, Hua Dong Lu No. 39, Nanning 530011, China
4Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Jinjilu No. 1, Guilin 541004, China

Received 28 May 2016; Revised 17 August 2016; Accepted 23 August 2016

Academic Editor: Alicia Cordero

Copyright © 2016 Yao Wu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Red-light running behaviors of bicycles at signalized intersection lead to a large number of traffic conflicts and high collision potentials. The primary objective of this study is to model the cyclists’ red-light running frequency within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Data was collected at twenty-five approaches at seventeen signalized intersections. The Poisson-gamma (PG) and Poisson-lognormal (PLN) model were developed and compared. The models were validated using Bayesian values based on posterior predictive checking indicators. It was found that the two models have a good fit of the observed cyclists’ red-light running frequency. Furthermore, the PLN model outperformed the PG model. The model estimated results showed that the amount of cyclists’ red-light running is significantly influenced by bicycle flow, conflict traffic flow, pedestrian signal type, vehicle speed, and e-bike rate. The validation result demonstrated the reliability of the PLN model. The research results can help transportation professionals to predict the expected amount of the cyclists’ red-light running and develop effective guidelines or policies to reduce red-light running frequency of bicycles at signalized intersections.