SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting

<div>Relative error of the curve fitting about sequence <svg height="11.5564pt" id="M193" style="vertical-align:-2.26807pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 18.0808 11.5564" width="18.0808pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M293 -169V-141C218 -131 209 -90 209 -44C209 19 222 85 222 152C222 207 198 255 139 269V273C199 286 222 334 222 388C222 454 209 523 209 588C209 632 218 671 293 681V709C234 709 148 695 148 577C147 513 155 438 155 372C155 337 152 291 64 285V256C152 250 155 204 155 169C156 105 148 31 148 -41C148 -157 234 -169 293 -169Z" id="g113-124"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.511,0)"><path d="M673 297H417L411 270C517 261 522 258 506 183L487 92C476 38 428 19 360 19C207 19 123 132 123 287C123 472 243 631 441 631C557 631 617 583 617 469L647 472C650 545 655 604 658 632C625 643 554 666 467 666C201 666 23 502 23 278C23 90 156 -16 339 -16C410 -16 501 6 569 24C566 43 567 70 573 101L589 183C604 259 607 262 667 271L673 297Z" id="g113-72"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="684" vert-adv-y="684"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,13.403,0)"><path d="M283 255V284C195 290 192 337 192 375C192 436 200 508 200 580C200 696 116 709 54 709V681C127 671 139 634 139 588C138 524 125 452 125 387C125 333 149 286 209 272V268C148 253 125 206 125 151C126 87 139 16 139 -47C139 -92 127 -131 54 -141V-169C115 -169 200 -152 200 -41C200 32 192 104 192 164C192 202 195 249 283 255Z" id="g113-126"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="347" vert-adv-y="347"></glyph.data></g></svg> in January 2004 to December 2013.</div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

fig6

Figure 6

Figure 6: SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting 