New JLS-Factor Model versus the Standard JLS Model: A Case Study on Chinese Stock Bubbles

Table 3

Prediction of the critical time of the SZSC bubbles burst for both models and their differences with the actual times of bubble burst.

Item	Estimated time interval
	2005/11/15–2007/11/28	2007/11/29–2008/10/17
The actual time of bubble burst	2007/10/31 ( = 107.83)	2008/1/14 ( = 108.04)
The predicted critical time of the original JLS model	2007/12/13 ( = 107.95)	2008/1/11 ( = 108.03)
The difference between the original JLS model and actual time (days)	−43	3
The predicted critical time of the new JLS model	2007/10/8 ( = 107.76)	2008/1/15 ( = 108.04)
The difference between the new JLS model and actual time (days)	23	−1

Value in parentheses is the predicted critical time .