Staged Venture Capital Investment considering Unexpected Major Events

<div>The relationship between the funding threshold <svg height="10.3089pt" id="M102" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -10.1025 15.4303 10.3089" width="15.4303pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M697 650H468L461 623L492 619C539 613 547 605 518 546C481 471 367 264 278 116H276C239 278 197 500 186 567C180 604 185 613 226 619L252 623L260 650H24L17 623C78 617 92 613 108 533L216 -11H247C365 200 515 462 560 529C616 612 624 615 689 623L697 650Z" id="g113-87"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="709" vert-adv-y="709"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,9.224,-5.741)"><path d="M486 158C486 177 478 202 466 220C413 228 386 236 336 262C386 288 413 297 466 304C478 323 486 347 485 366C470 376 444 381 422 380C389 338 368 319 321 288C323 345 329 372 349 422C339 442 322 461 305 470C289 461 271 442 262 422C281 372 287 345 290 288C243 319 222 338 189 380C167 381 142 376 125 366C125 347 133 322 145 304C198 296 225 288 275 262C225 236 198 227 145 220C133 201 125 177 126 158C141 148 167 143 189 144C222 186 243 205 290 236C288 179 282 152 262 102C272 82 289 63 306 54C322 63 340 82 350 102C330 152 324 179 321 236C368 205 390 186 422 144C444 143 470 148 486 158Z" id="g50-43"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="611" vert-adv-y="611"></glyph.data></g></svg> and major events uncertainty <svg height="9.49473pt" id="M103" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 7.30254 9.49473" width="7.30254pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M529 97L508 118C475 75 449 58 438 58C428 58 421 66 415 104C393 234 374 403 364 496C345 670 307 712 254 712C220 712 174 691 153 669L161 645C176 653 194 658 206 658C237 658 261 640 278 562C287 522 290 483 293 434C223 269 110 105 23 9L32 -12C59 -6 85 0 108 7C152 64 251 252 300 366C307 297 315 221 337 82C346 24 363 -12 393 -12C425 -12 475 13 529 97Z" id="g113-233"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="552" vert-adv-y="552"></glyph.data></g></svg>. <svg height="6.34998pt" id="M104" style="vertical-align:-0.2063899pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 7.47218 6.34998" width="7.47218pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M548 455L523 469C505 448 490 439 461 439C416 439 374 447 316 447C144 447 23 310 23 161C23 47 89 -12 179 -12C312 -12 429 106 429 244C429 303 419 344 368 386L371 388C404 383 440 378 474 378C507 378 530 411 548 455ZM350 274C350 191 308 25 198 25C144 25 108 75 108 157C108 264 170 395 276 395C296 395 320 384 333 360C347 334 350 316 350 274Z" id="g113-240"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="565" vert-adv-y="565"></glyph.data></g></svg> = 0.2; <svg height="8.55521pt" id="M105" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 42.2948 8.55521" width="42.2948pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M393 379C402 394 400 411 393 422C384 437 365 448 348 448C301 448 237 372 186 285H182L193 335C210 408 205 448 178 448C150 448 80 402 29 344L45 321C80 355 114 373 122 373C128 373 130 365 124 330C106 228 76 98 50 -5L57 -12C82 -5 112 3 132 6L172 203C196 256 234 304 254 329C275 355 293 367 306 367C318 367 330 360 342 348C347 343 355 343 365 350S386 367 393 379Z" id="g113-115"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="422" vert-adv-y="422"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.12,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z" id="g117-34"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.383,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z" id="g113-49"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,26.623,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z" id="g113-47"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="228" vert-adv-y="228"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,29.587,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z" id="g113-49"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,35.827,0)"><path d="M456 178V225H360V632H320C217 496 115 347 20 206V178H280V106C280 40 276 34 189 27V0H445V27C364 34 360 39 360 106V178H456ZM280 225H82C149 335 214 431 278 520H280V225Z" id="g113-53"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g></svg>; <svg height="9.49473pt" id="M106" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 6.84582 9.49473" width="6.84582pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M494 514C482 587 419 712 303 712C238 712 174 667 174 603C174 561 205 514 249 449C219 438 187 422 162 407C93 366 23 283 23 177C23 69 87 -12 190 -12C244 -12 288 5 328 33C406 87 444 170 444 249C444 329 404 391 331 475C265 550 222 605 222 627C222 647 238 657 267 657C355 657 421 585 484 499L494 514ZM359 234C359 143 319 30 219 30C172 30 114 75 114 178C114 275 163 343 195 378C212 397 241 415 269 425C305 382 359 313 359 234Z" id="g113-226"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="517" vert-adv-y="517"></glyph.data></g></svg> = 0.02; <svg height="11.8174pt" id="M107" style="vertical-align:-3.1815pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 9.78276 11.8174" width="9.78276pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M405 650H141L135 622C222 616 230 610 215 535L133 116C118 41 113 33 29 28L23 0H289L295 28C209 33 205 40 219 116L298 535C312 609 317 616 399 622L405 650Z" id="g113-74"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="428" vert-adv-y="428"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,4.719,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z" id="g50-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g></svg> = 1.</div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

fig2

Figure 2

Figure 2: Staged Venture Capital Investment considering Unexpected Major Events 