Uncertainty Analysis of Rear-End Collision Risk Based on Car-Following Driving Simulation Experiments

<table class="fixed-width table-group" id="tab4"><tr><td><table class="table"><colgroup><col style="width:4.58em"/><col style="width:3.56em"/><col style="width:7.01em"/><col style="width:3.56em"/><col style="width:7.17em"/></colgroup><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="5"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left" rowspan="2">Variable</td><td class="align_center" colspan="2"> Driving simulation data</td><td class="align_center" colspan="2"> Monte-Carlo simulation</td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_center">Mean</td><td class="align_center">S.D.</td><td class="align_center">Mean</td><td class="align_center">S.D.</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="5"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 8.8824ptpx;"><svg height="11.1049pt" id="M61" style="vertical-align:-3.29108pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -7.81382 8.8824 11.1049" width="8.8824pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z" id="g113-117"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,4.368,3.132)"><path d="M397 380C406 395 404 411 396 425S369 451 350 451C302 451 239 372 192 294H189L199 338C214 407 207 451 180 451C152 451 83 405 30 345L48 318C87 354 117 372 125 372S135 362 127 324L55 -5L61 -12C87 -5 117 3 139 5C154 87 168 162 179 207C198 250 240 310 260 332C281 355 297 366 307 366C321 366 333 360 347 346C351 342 360 342 369 348C379 355 389 366 397 380Z" id="g50-115"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">1.10</td><td class="align_center">0.48</td><td class="align_center">1.16</td><td class="align_center">0.15</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><i>t</i><sub><i>1</i></sub></td><td class="align_center">1.37</td><td class="align_center">0.64</td><td class="align_center">1.33</td><td class="align_center">0.19</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 13.9662ptpx;"><svg height="9.25202pt" id="M62" style="vertical-align:-3.29111pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 13.9662 9.25202" width="13.9662pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M483 97L471 123C436 91 401 65 392 65C388 65 384 74 390 106C414 239 444 378 457 429L455 433C444 433 429 436 416 439C392 444 368 448 344 448C281 448 204 415 152 376C71 315 23 205 23 103C23 21 57 -12 85 -12C114 -12 149 6 185 34C231 70 285 119 329 183H331L309 81C292 0 308 -12 326 -12C350 -12 421 24 483 97ZM374 387C370 363 356 291 345 261C315 193 181 50 139 50C124 50 110 71 110 118C110 224 153 331 218 379C238 394 271 402 301 402C329 402 359 394 374 387Z" id="g113-98"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.993,3.132)"><path d="M781 91L765 118C733 86 702 70 693 70C686 70 685 77 692 106L738 297C772 439 736 451 712 451S675 445 647 431C605 410 526 356 452 257H450L459 294C491 426 459 451 429 451C403 451 386 445 361 431C312 404 239 343 170 253H168L188 333C208 411 205 451 175 451C148 451 85 417 24 346L39 318C57 338 100 374 112 374C120 374 122 372 115 339C91 226 62 112 28 -6L37 -12C59 -4 87 3 114 6C125 68 142 127 154 168C184 227 316 383 372 383C397 383 396 366 381 289C362 192 338 92 312 -6L317 -12C339 -5 367 3 396 6L434 170C468 234 598 383 650 383C668 383 676 369 664 319L609 90C593 23 600 -12 629 -12C654 -12 722 23 781 91Z" id="g50-110"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">4.66</td><td class="align_center">1.86</td><td class="align_center">4.73</td><td class="align_center">1.26</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="5"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>Comparison results of Monte Carlo simulation and driving simulator.</div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

tab4

Table 4

Table 4: Uncertainty Analysis of Rear-End Collision Risk Based on Car-Following Driving Simulation Experiments 