Research on a Grey Prediction Model of Population Growth Based on a Logistic Approach

Table 7

Fitting metrics of models for validation of Shanghai data.

Year	Raw data	NGM	APE (%)	Verhulst	APE (%)	LPGMWBO	APE (%)
2013	2164	2164.00	0.0000	2164.00	0.0000	19506.81	0.0000
2014	2173	1174.22	−45.9630	1626.21	−25.1628	13445.81	−6.0980
2015	2116	2059.15	−2.6868	2199.68	3.9544	10307.35	7.5003
2016	2127	2119.36	−0.3592	2371.28	11.4846	5244.43	−4.6757
2017	2121	2123.46	0.1158	2005.50	−5.4454	2121.51	0.02410
MAPE			12.2812		11.5118		4.5745
RMSPE			20.5911		12.7307		4.8021
IA			−0.2538		−0.0230		0.9982
U1			0.1090		0.0651		0.0218
U2			0.2090		0.1286		0.0435
R			−0.6412		−0.6135		0.9966