Research on a Grey Prediction Model of Population Growth Based on a Logistic Approach

Table 9

Fitting metrics of models for validation of Sichuan data.

Year	Raw data	NGM	APE (%)	Verhulst	APE (%)	LPGMWBO	APE (%)
2012	3516	3516.00	0.0000	3516.00	0.0000	57200.41	0.0000
2013	3640	3740.85	2.7706	2694.63	−25.9717	40138.75	−9.2721
2014	3769	3879.89	2.9421	3788.95	0.5293	35605.46	10.6183
2015	3912	4031.68	3.0592	4318.81	10.3991	21571.71	1.4600
2016	4066	4197.39	3.2313	3887.62	−4.3871	10200.79	−13.2837
MAPE			3.0007		10.3217		8.6585
2017	4217	4378.29	3.8248	2822.88	−33.0595	4257.574	0.9621
MAPE			3.8248		33.0595		0.9621
RMSPE			2.908642		17.77229		7.939729
IA			0.951637		0.136366		0.996091
U1			0.014756		0.09594		0.033772
U2			0.02992		0.184214		0.06721
R			0.996085		0.031431		0.992387