Learning Evolutionary Stages with Hidden Semi-Markov Model for Predicting Social Unrest Events

<div>Normalized <svg height="9.01194pt" id="M40" style="vertical-align:-0.2455397pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.7664 15.6537 9.01194" width="15.6537pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M409 504C401 567 396 607 392 642C354 654 312 665 266 665C137 665 60 583 60 487C60 374 161 325 225 290C300 250 355 215 355 141C355 68 311 21 235 21C131 21 86 122 71 183L41 176C48 128 61 42 68 21C78 16 93 8 118 0C142 -7 175 -15 216 -15C349 -15 438 69 438 174C438 287 344 333 265 374C186 414 138 449 138 522C138 576 172 631 249 631C336 631 363 562 380 499L409 504Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,5.927,0)"><path d="M716 650H478V622C549 617 570 605 575 566C579 535 582 493 582 401V326C582 161 537 40 393 40C269 40 205 133 205 294V521C205 611 213 617 291 622V650H33V622C111 615 120 611 120 521V272C120 154 148 80 208 34C252 0 309 -14 368 -14C434 -14 501 7 548 55C605 116 623 201 623 319V401C623 493 626 536 629 563C633 605 656 618 716 622V650Z"></path></g></svg> event mention counts of Thailand with annotations for top ten stretches above <svg height="9.49473pt" id="M41" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 6.59789 9.49473" width="6.59789pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 507C475 612 440 712 326 712C139 712 23 420 23 215C23 96 58 -12 180 -12C369 -12 475 293 475 507ZM391 522C391 486 387 448 379 394H126C155 538 222 677 310 677C386 677 391 571 391 522ZM373 346C344 193 283 22 189 22C126 22 106 114 106 196C106 243 111 293 118 346H373Z"></path></g></svg> (red line).</div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

fig4

Figure 4

Figure 4: Learning Evolutionary Stages with Hidden Semi-Markov Model for Predicting Social Unrest Events 