Bayesian Estimation of Ammunition Demand Based on Multinomial Distribution

<div>Iterative tracer diagram for parameters <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.5794pt" id="M143" style="vertical-align:-3.29107pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 76.309 12.5794" width="76.309pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 507C475 612 440 712 326 712C139 712 23 420 23 215C23 96 58 -12 180 -12C369 -12 475 293 475 507ZM391 522C391 486 387 448 379 394H126C155 538 222 677 310 677C386 677 391 571 391 522ZM373 346C344 193 283 22 189 22C126 22 106 114 106 196C106 243 111 293 118 346H373Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.095,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.239,0)"><path d="M475 507C475 612 440 712 326 712C139 712 23 420 23 215C23 96 58 -12 180 -12C369 -12 475 293 475 507ZM391 522C391 486 387 448 379 394H126C155 538 222 677 310 677C386 677 391 571 391 522ZM373 346C344 193 283 22 189 22C126 22 106 114 106 196C106 243 111 293 118 346H373Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,22.388,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.334,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,32.477,0)"><path d="M475 507C475 612 440 712 326 712C139 712 23 420 23 215C23 96 58 -12 180 -12C369 -12 475 293 475 507ZM391 522C391 486 387 448 379 394H126C155 538 222 677 310 677C386 677 391 571 391 522ZM373 346C344 193 283 22 189 22C126 22 106 114 106 196C106 243 111 293 118 346H373Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,38.626,3.132)"><path d="M290 377C321 398 342 415 358 430C378 450 389 473 389 502C389 578 329 635 238 635H237C184 635 137 610 109 578L64 515L88 493C112 529 154 573 208 573S303 542 303 482C303 409 233 370 141 341L149 308C165 313 190 319 215 319C272 319 341 283 341 193C342 98 292 43 222 43C163 43 122 72 96 94C88 101 79 100 70 94C61 87 47 73 46 60C44 47 48 37 62 23C76 10 118 -12 165 -12C238 -12 430 62 430 223C430 297 379 359 290 375V377Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,43.572,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,48.716,0)"><path d="M475 507C475 612 440 712 326 712C139 712 23 420 23 215C23 96 58 -12 180 -12C369 -12 475 293 475 507ZM391 522C391 486 387 448 379 394H126C155 538 222 677 310 677C386 677 391 571 391 522ZM373 346C344 193 283 22 189 22C126 22 106 114 106 196C106 243 111 293 118 346H373Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,54.865,3.132)"><path d="M462 177V227H365V632H320C217 496 116 350 21 208V177H284V109C284 43 280 38 190 31V0H451V31C369 38 365 43 365 108V177H462ZM284 227H88C155 336 218 430 282 519H284V227Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,59.811,0)"><path d="M95 130C70 130 46 113 46 88C46 72 54 64 59 64C93 55 121 33 121 -3C121 -41 93 -68 44 -88L55 -117C117 -98 186 -56 186 22C186 91 131 130 95 130Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,64.954,0)"><path d="M475 507C475 612 440 712 326 712C139 712 23 420 23 215C23 96 58 -12 180 -12C369 -12 475 293 475 507ZM391 522C391 486 387 448 379 394H126C155 538 222 677 310 677C386 677 391 571 391 522ZM373 346C344 193 283 22 189 22C126 22 106 114 106 196C106 243 111 293 118 346H373Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,71.103,3.132)"><path d="M158 548H390L417 615L410 623H122L83 318C105 326 143 337 185 337C296 337 350 275 350 188C350 116 308 42 225 42C164 42 122 74 100 93C90 101 82 99 72 92C60 82 51 68 50 59C48 46 52 38 66 24C82 9 125 -12 172 -12C225 -11 292 15 346 59C408 108 437 166 437 226C437 309 371 397 242 397C214 397 170 382 133 369L158 548Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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Figure 2

Figure 2: Bayesian Estimation of Ammunition Demand Based on Multinomial Distribution 