Analysis and Parametrical Estimation with Real COVID-19 Data of a New Extended SEIR Epidemic Model with Quarantined Individuals

<table class="table-group" id="tab2"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Variable</td><td class="align_center">Definition</td><td class="align_center">Value</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 11.1398ptpx;"><svg height="11.927pt" id="M202" style="vertical-align:-3.291101pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 11.1398 11.927" width="11.1398pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M449 634C442 637 425 643 405 650C376 660 341 666 307 666C181 666 98 590 98 485C98 400 170 343 215 310L246 288C307 243 343 204 343 147C343 67 291 18 219 18C104 18 61 124 51 202L23 199C28 124 27 71 27 47C47 22 122 -16 204 -16C324 -16 428 60 428 174C428 256 379 309 307 360L276 382C223 419 179 455 179 516C179 576 221 632 293 632C379 632 410 564 418 487L448 490C446 536 446 592 449 634Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.071,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Susceptible population</td><td class="align_center">46 <svg height="7.35473pt" id="M203" style="vertical-align:-0.3499303pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -7.0048 7.75925 7.35473" width="7.75925pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M528 54L331 254L528 455L492 493L294 291L96 493L60 455L257 254L60 54L96 16L294 217L492 16L528 54Z"></path></g></svg> <svg height="11.7978pt" id="M204" style="vertical-align:-0.2063999pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 17.5728 11.7978" width="17.5728pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.527,-5.741)"><path d="M141 347C171 480 264 541 327 570C364 587 403 599 436 605L429 641C389 634 339 622 300 609C191 570 37 458 37 239C37 86 126 -12 245 -12C367 -12 454 89 454 210C454 314 380 397 272 397C252 397 230 390 208 380L141 347ZM231 338C323 338 366 257 366 174C366 108 340 27 263 27C180 27 129 123 129 244C129 268 130 292 135 310C158 323 193 338 231 338Z"></path></g></svg></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 13.0189ptpx;"><svg height="11.927pt" id="M205" style="vertical-align:-3.291101pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 13.0189 11.927" width="13.0189pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M593 650H142L136 622C219 616 224 611 209 531L130 120C114 39 108 34 23 28L17 0H501C518 32 557 130 568 158L540 169C519 132 495 93 469 70C439 43 409 35 332 35C272 35 241 37 225 50C211 61 211 89 222 149L253 320H350C441 320 443 312 441 239H471L510 434H481C455 366 448 358 360 358H260L303 572C311 613 312 615 348 615H431C509 615 522 603 532 581C544 555 546 531 545 491L574 493C583 555 592 631 593 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.943,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Exposed population</td><td class="align_center">100</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 14.402ptpx;"><svg height="11.927pt" id="M206" style="vertical-align:-3.291101pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 14.402 11.927" width="14.402pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M699 368C699 549 574 666 407 666C186 666 23 488 23 277C23 113 129 -3 288 -13L307 -26C431 -111 501 -139 533 -147C559 -154 613 -163 658 -164L666 -141C597 -111 507 -66 430 -11L416 -1C580 42 699 190 699 368ZM601 371C601 227 518 54 381 22L354 40L278 24C175 47 120 145 120 269C120 451 235 631 398 631C540 631 601 521 601 371Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,9.321,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Quarantine population</td><td class="align_center">1</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 9.78276ptpx;"><svg height="11.927pt" id="M207" style="vertical-align:-3.291101pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 9.78276 11.927" width="9.78276pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M405 650H141L135 622C222 616 230 610 215 535L133 116C118 41 113 33 29 28L23 0H289L295 28C209 33 205 40 219 116L298 535C312 609 317 616 399 622L405 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,4.719,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Infected population</td><td class="align_center">1</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 13.1624ptpx;"><svg height="11.927pt" id="M208" style="vertical-align:-3.291101pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 13.1624 11.927" width="13.1624pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M610 18C585 26 567 34 540 68C517 97 499 128 476 171C452 215 425 276 413 304C496 332 570 394 570 494C570 555 545 595 509 619S419 650 364 650H139L133 622C216 615 219 612 203 527L129 132C112 40 105 36 23 28L17 0H279L285 28C199 34 194 40 211 132L239 284H284C320 284 334 275 351 236C374 182 394 140 420 93C459 23 495 -1 592 -8H600L610 18ZM480 485C480 424 449 372 403 342C374 323 338 316 293 316H245L291 562C296 589 301 601 311 608S337 618 358 618C432 618 480 575 480 485Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.086,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Recovered population</td><td class="align_center">0</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="3"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

tab2

Table 2

Table 2: Analysis and Parametrical Estimation with Real COVID-19 Data of a New Extended SEIR Epidemic Model with Quarantined Individuals 