Research Article

Does Indian Commodity Futures Markets Exhibit Price Discovery? An Empirical Analysis

Table 1

Summary of earlier studies regarding price discovery in commodity futures markets.

Author(s)PeriodVariablesEconometric methodsEmpirical outcomes

Indian commodity markets
Vijayakumar [19]January 2017–March 2020CardamomJohansen cointegration, vector error correction model, Granger causality, and regression with dummy variablesCardamom e-auction prices exhibit a negative association with cardamom futures but a positive relation with spot prices
Pradhan, Hall, and Toit [28]2009–2020Commodities (aluminum, copper, crude oil, gold, nickel, and silver) and indices (agriculture, livestock, and precious metals)ARDL bounds testingLong-run unidirectional causality from spot to futures prices for aluminum, copper, and silver but short-run bidirectional, unidirectional, and neutrality between spot and futures prices
Rout, Das, and Rao [16]January 2010-December 2015Chana, chilli, jeera, soya bean, and turmeric.Causality test, error correction model, EGARCH, and parametric VaRVolatility spreads from the spot market to the futures market
Nair [22]January 2008-December 2019Aluminium, Copper, Nickel, and ZincJohansen test, error correction model, and Granger causalityMetals’ futures prices are heavily weighted in predicting futures spot market prices
Nair [18]January 2004–December 2019Pepper, cardamom, and natural rubberCointegration-ECM-GARCH frameworkPrice discovery in commodity futures markets is efficient
Mohanty and Mishra [17]October 2015–March 2016Castor seed, cotton oil cake, rape mustard seed, soybean, refined soya oil, crude palm oil, jeera, chana (chickpea), and turmericVariance ratio testsAgricultural commodity futures markets in India are inefficient in the short term both before and after merger
Manogna and Mishra [15]2010–2020Oil seeds (cotton seed, castor seed, soybean seed, rape mustard seed), spices (turmeric, jeera coriander), and grains (guar seed, chana)Granger causality, vector error correction model (VECM) and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH)Price discovery exists in all of the commodities studied, with the futures market outperforming the spot market in six of them: soybean seed, coriander, turmeric, castor seed, guar seed, and chana
Kaur and Singh [21]2007–2016Gold exchange traded fundsJohansen test of cointegration, fully modified ordinary least squares, Toda-Yamamoto test of causalitySpot and futures price movements have been found to lead those of exchange traded funds
Jena, Tiwari, Hammoudeh, and Roubaud [27]2005–2017Bullion commodities (gold and silver), and energy commodities (Brent crude oil and natural gas)Causality-in-quantiles testBecause of its informational efficiency, the foreseeability of the futures market is high in the normal market and declines when the spot market enters severe bearish and bullish situations
Bhaumik, Karanasos, and Kartsaklas [24]1995–2007NSE indexBivariate ARFI-FIGARCHThe integration of futures trading lessens spot variability
Inoue and Hamori [23]January 2006–March 2011The spot index (MCXSCOMDEX) and futures index (MCXCOMDEX)Dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS)The futures market for commodities appears to be efficient
Joseph, Sisodia, and Tiwari [25]January 2008–December 2012Gold, silver, crude oil, natural gas, aluminium, copper, chana, and soybeanGranger causality test and causality analysis in the frequency domainAlmost all of the commodities selected have one-way relationships from futures to spot
Mahalik, Acharya, and Babu [50]June 2005–December 2008Agriculture futures price index (LAGRIFP), energy futures price index (LENERGYFP), and aggregate commodity index (LCOMDEXFP)Vector error correction model (VECM) and bivariate exponential Garch model (EGARCH)Futures commodity markets exert a leading role and offer effective price discovery in the spot commodity market
Ali and Gupta [20]2004–2007Wheat, rice, maize, chickpea, black lentil, red lentil, guar seed, pepper, cashew, castor seed, soybean, and sugarJohansen cointegration analysis, and Granger causalityMost agricultural commodities exhibit a long-term connection among futures and spot prices
Worldwide commodity markets
Jian, Li, and Zhu [51]April 2015–April 2018CSI300, SSE50, and CSI500Skewness-dependent multivariate conditional autoregressive value at risk model (SDMV-CAViaR)Severe risk overflows in both directions among the Chinese stock index futures and spot markets
Chen and Tongurai [52]April 2015–March 2020Copper, aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel, and tinForecast error variance decompositionChinese futures markets for base metals tend to produce more spillover effects than spot markets
Yu, Ding, Sun, Gao, Jia, Wang, and Guo [53]July 2003–December 2019Shanghai metal exchange copper spot prices, COMEX copper futures prices, LME copper futures prices, and Shanghai futures exchange copper futures pricesWavelet decompositionThe futures markets in New York and London are more associated with the Chinese spot market than the Shanghai futures market
Ausloos, Zhang, and Dhesi [54]2007–2013CSI-300 index (China-Shanghai-Shenzhen-300-Stock index) and CSI-300 index futures (CSI-300-IF)TGARCH, Granger causality, and regression analysisTwo-way Granger causality among futures and spot market in China
Go and Lau [55]January 2000–July 2016Crude palm oil spot and futures prices in Malaysian currencyVariance ratio testsDuring the bear market time span, spot and futures prices are strongly linked
Kirkulak-Uludag and Lkhamazhapov [56]2008–2013Russian spot and three-month futures gold pricesCorrected dynamic conditional correlation modelThe conditional correlation among spot and futures gold returns is significantly greater

Source: authors’ own work.