Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia

<div><i>Q</i>-<i>Q</i> plots of <svg height="10.3116pt" id="M268" style="vertical-align:-4.35069pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 15.7173 10.3116" width="15.7173pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M391 364C391 409 353 448 295 448C249 448 198 426 152 393C65 331 23 225 23 139C23 14 96 -12 146 -12C198 -12 280 9 367 101L351 124C300 78 242 48 194 48C129 48 109 107 109 162V191C208 213 391 266 391 364ZM313 350C313 305 268 261 113 223C132 334 187 381 217 398C227 404 244 405 261 405C290 405 313 385 313 350Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.317,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,9.749,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.905,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> (a) and <svg height="10.3116pt" id="M269" style="vertical-align:-4.35069pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 15.7173 10.3116" width="15.7173pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M391 364C391 409 353 448 295 448C249 448 198 426 152 393C65 331 23 225 23 139C23 14 96 -12 146 -12C198 -12 280 9 367 101L351 124C300 78 242 48 194 48C129 48 109 107 109 162V191C208 213 391 266 391 364ZM313 350C313 305 268 261 113 223C132 334 187 381 217 398C227 404 244 405 261 405C290 405 313 385 313 350Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.317,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,9.749,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.905,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> (b).</div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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Figure 3

Figure 3: Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia 

Figure 3 | Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia 