Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia

<div>The visual comparison between the <svg height="10.4942pt" id="M276" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> and <svg height="10.4942pt" id="M277" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> forecast (a) and <svg height="10.4942pt" id="M278" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> and <svg height="10.4942pt" id="M279" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> forecast (b).</div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

fig4

Figure 4

Figure 4: Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia 

Figure 4 | Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia 