Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia

<table class="table-group" id="tab1"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="5"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Descriptive statistics</td><td class="align_center"><svg height="10.4942pt" id="M131" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> (%)</td><td class="align_center"><svg height="10.4942pt" id="M132" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> (%)</td><td class="align_center"><svg height="10.4942pt" id="M133" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M290 377C321 398 342 415 358 430C378 450 389 473 389 502C389 578 329 635 238 635H237C184 635 137 610 109 578L64 515L88 493C112 529 154 573 208 573S303 542 303 482C303 409 233 370 141 341L149 308C165 313 190 319 215 319C272 319 341 283 341 193C342 98 292 43 222 43C163 43 122 72 96 94C88 101 79 100 70 94C61 87 47 73 46 60C44 47 48 37 62 23C76 10 118 -12 165 -12C238 -12 430 62 430 223C430 297 379 359 290 375V377Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.738,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> (%)</td><td class="align_center"><svg height="10.2724pt" id="M134" style="vertical-align:-4.35065pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.92175 15.5281 10.2724" width="15.5281pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M494 0V32C450 38 426 53 393 105L296 260C330 305 354 338 375 361C411 396 421 401 476 410V442H293V410C332 402 337 394 323 371C311 351 295 324 274 293L227 371C213 393 218 402 252 410V442H16V410C70 402 80 391 108 344L196 199C166 159 140 123 115 95C81 54 61 43 7 32V0H196V32C156 41 150 53 167 81C182 105 199 138 219 166L269 79C287 49 283 38 245 32V0H494Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.29,3.132)"><path d="M345 0V33C260 38 258 46 258 122V635C174 612 105 594 35 583V554L87 550C124 546 130 539 130 494V122C130 46 127 38 42 33V0H345Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,9.669,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.826,3.132)"><path d="M329 37L319 72C301 64 285 60 268 60C248 60 212 69 212 147V394H304C320 402 321 431 310 442H212V586L198 593L84 515V442H44L16 406L21 394H84V114C84 24 130 -12 207 -12C214 -12 230 -8 247 -1L329 37Z"></path></g></svg> (%)</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="5"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Average</td><td class="align_center">7.8119</td><td class="align_center">89.2812</td><td class="align_center">2.9069</td><td class="align_center">7.8703</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Variance</td><td class="align_center">0.2678</td><td class="align_center">0.2470</td><td class="align_center">0.0008</td><td class="align_center">0.6484</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Standard deviation</td><td class="align_center">5.1750</td><td class="align_center">4.9703</td><td class="align_center">0.2807</td><td class="align_center">8.0520</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="5"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>Descriptive statistics of each data.</div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

tab1

Table 1

Table 1: Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia 

Table 1 | Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia 