Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia

<table class="table-group" id="tab4"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Data</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 16.2327ptpx;"><svg height="10.4942pt" id="M173" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.2327 10.4942" width="16.2327pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M303 37L293 66C280 59 256 49 231 49S173 63 173 143V396H281C294 404 298 428 287 439H173V575L158 577L92 509V439H46L17 408L22 396H92V107C92 27 128 -12 192 -12C203 -12 218 -9 237 2L303 37Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 16.5524ptpx;"><svg height="10.4942pt" id="M174" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 17.6094ptpx;"><svg height="10.3116pt" id="M175" style="vertical-align:-4.35069pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 17.6094 10.3116" width="17.6094pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.202,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.634,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,13.79,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 6.40217ptpx;"><svg height="6.1673pt" id="M176" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 6.40217 6.1673" width="6.40217pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M471 456L444 459C426 433 414 430 388 430C324 430 270 434 216 434C103 434 51 374 23 338L43 317C96 366 146 380 221 375L154 109C149 86 147 68 147 52C147 4 168 -12 197 -12C240 -12 291 25 334 71L320 96C295 75 268 58 252 58C238 58 227 79 238 138C251 211 272 296 292 372C310 372 332 368 350 368C391 368 421 369 434 371C444 388 455 413 471 456Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">−2.7926</td><td class="align_center">−2.7815</td><td class="align_center">2.4323</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Critical value</td><td class="align_center">−3.2000</td><td class="align_center">−3.2000</td><td class="align_center">−3.2000</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="4"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>Data stationary test <span class="nowrap"><svg height="10.4942pt" id="M170" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> <span class="nowrap"><svg height="10.4942pt" id="M171" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> and <span class="nowrap"><svg height="10.3116pt" id="M172" style="vertical-align:-4.35069pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 17.6094 10.3116" width="17.6094pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M536 404C536 423 520 448 491 448C445 448 398 404 308 283L286 338C255 416 242 448 217 448C182 448 138 402 92 341L111 321C149 368 169 378 178 378C188 378 198 363 214 320L254 212C185 117 138 65 107 65C98 65 85 69 82 75C79 82 73 86 65 86C44 86 23 60 23 39C23 7 44 -12 71 -12C119 -12 168 33 265 177L306 61C321 17 347 -12 373 -12C413 -12 465 33 507 96L491 119C459 84 432 60 413 60C395 60 378 92 358 148L321 250C341 279 369 310 389 332C417 363 439 382 456 382C466 382 475 376 481 368C486 361 492 358 496 358C513 358 536 381 536 404Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.202,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,11.634,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,13.79,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

tab4

Table 4

Table 4: Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia 

Table 4 | Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia 