Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia

<table class="table-group" id="tab7"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Date</td><td class="align_center"><svg height="10.4942pt" id="M300" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> forecast (%)</td><td class="align_center"><svg height="10.4942pt" id="M301" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> forecast (%)</td><td class="align_center"><svg height="10.4942pt" id="M302" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M290 377C321 398 342 415 358 430C378 450 389 473 389 502C389 578 329 635 238 635H237C184 635 137 610 109 578L64 515L88 493C112 529 154 573 208 573S303 542 303 482C303 409 233 370 141 341L149 308C165 313 190 319 215 319C272 319 341 283 341 193C342 98 292 43 222 43C163 43 122 72 96 94C88 101 79 100 70 94C61 87 47 73 46 60C44 47 48 37 62 23C76 10 118 -12 165 -12C238 -12 430 62 430 223C430 297 379 359 290 375V377Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.738,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> forecast (%)</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">8 November 2021</td><td class="align_center">0.2275</td><td class="align_center">96.3930</td><td class="align_center">3.3795</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">9 November 2021</td><td class="align_center">0.2350</td><td class="align_center">96.3862</td><td class="align_center">3.3788</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">10 November 2021</td><td class="align_center">0.2247</td><td class="align_center">96.3960</td><td class="align_center">3.3793</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">11 November 2021</td><td class="align_center">0.2389</td><td class="align_center">96.3822</td><td class="align_center">3.3788</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">12 November 2021</td><td class="align_center">0.2220</td><td class="align_center">96.3988</td><td class="align_center">3.3791</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">13 November 2021</td><td class="align_center">0.2165</td><td class="align_center">96.4042</td><td class="align_center">3.3793</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="4"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>The <span class="nowrap"><svg height="10.4942pt" id="M297" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> <span class="nowrap"><svg height="10.4942pt" id="M298" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.737,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> and <svg height="10.4942pt" id="M299" style="vertical-align:-4.35061pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.14359 16.5524 10.4942" width="16.5524pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 445L452 468C423 436 401 426 385 426S352 427 305 436C268 443 216 448 185 448C156 448 128 425 102 382C89 360 77 338 64 304L89 291C117 340 143 380 190 380C214 380 268 376 295 373C320 370 344 371 362 374L70 101C32 65 23 36 23 18C23 5 27 -3 31 -8C36 -8 39 -6 42 -1C52 15 67 31 80 40S110 49 143 33C195 8 257 -20 290 -20C339 -20 382 11 439 129L416 148C366 74 334 55 305 55C278 55 236 68 203 81C169 94 141 100 122 96C205 170 348 308 411 376L475 445Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M290 377C321 398 342 415 358 430C378 450 389 473 389 502C389 578 329 635 238 635H237C184 635 137 610 109 578L64 515L88 493C112 529 154 573 208 573S303 542 303 482C303 409 233 370 141 341L149 308C165 313 190 319 215 319C272 319 341 283 341 193C342 98 292 43 222 43C163 43 122 72 96 94C88 101 79 100 70 94C61 87 47 73 46 60C44 47 48 37 62 23C76 10 118 -12 165 -12C238 -12 430 62 430 223C430 297 379 359 290 375V377Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.581,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.738,3.132)"><path d="M329 433H203L239 587L230 596L147 534L123 433H57L30 395L34 388H115L61 129C37 16 59 -12 85 -12C147 -12 222 58 260 98L241 125C212 95 160 62 144 62C132 62 127 71 138 126L192 386L305 394L329 433Z"></path></g></svg> forecasting results.</div>

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

tab7

Table 7

Table 7: Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia 

Table 7 | Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia 