We test the forecasting power and information content of lumber futures prices traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, from 1995 to 2013, at four forecast horizons. A Mincer-Zarnowitz regression finds evidence of statistically significant forecasting power at all forecast horizons. The results also support the presence of a time-varying risk premium for the shorter forecast horizons. A Granger causality test provides evidence that lumber futures prices lag spot prices in information assimilation over longer forecast horizons, while neither lagging nor leading over shorter forecast horizons.

Shiv N. Mehrotra

Douglas R. Carter

Forecasting Performance of Lumber Futures Prices

In a software industry based on a platform firm and two firms producing differentiated applications complementary to the platform, we investigate the effects on profits and welfare of the choice of different contracts (price versus quantity) by the application firms. In contrast to the traditional result, <svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="vertical-align:-2.26807pt" id="M1" height="11.5564pt" version="1.1" viewBox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 15.3928 11.5564" width="15.3928pt"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path id="g113-41" d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"/></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path id="g113-50" d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"/></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.738,0)"><path id="g113-42" d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"/></g></svg> equilibrium profits are higher under Cournot or Bertrand competition depending upon the degree of complementarity between platform and application producers as well as the degree of substitutability between applications; <svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="vertical-align:-2.26807pt" id="M2" height="11.5564pt" version="1.1" viewBox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 15.3928 11.5564" width="15.3928pt"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><use xlink:href="#g113-41"/></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,4.498,0)"><path id="g113-51" d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 23V0H405C417 45 427 89 440 131L412 140Z"/></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.738,0)"><use xlink:href="#g113-42"/></g></svg> the social welfare may be higher under Cournot when the application products are highly substitutable. 

Luciano Fanti

Domenico Buccella

Cournot and Bertrand Competition in the Software Industry

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents: 2017

Forecasting Performance of Lumber Futures Prices

Cournot and Bertrand Competition in the Software Industry