A Predictive Model for Daily Inoculum Levels of Gibberella zeae in Passo Fundo, Brazil

Table 2

Estimated posterior medians and 95% credibility interval for the autoregressive model.

		2008			2009			2010
	2.5%	50%	97.5%	2.5%	50%	97.5%	2.5%	50%	97.5%
𝛽0	−1.699	−1.511	−1.305	−1.586	−1.364	−1.186	−3.027	−2.826	−2.649
𝛽𝑇𝐴	−0.124	−0.064	−0.004	0.105	0.145	0.187	0.020	0.087	0.153
𝛽𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁	0.028	0.043	0.057	0.014	0.017	0.021	0.005	0.009	0.013
𝛽𝑅𝐻	5.023	6.683	8.269	−0.927	1.180	3.561	−1.240	1.546	4.176
𝛽𝑆𝐻	−0.034	0.671	1.373	−3.427	−2.609	−1.626	−3.705	−2.691	−1.600
𝜙	−0.913	−0.429	0.141	−0.996	−0.880	−0.469	0.329	0.873	0.995

𝛽₀: intercept, TA: iemperature implitude, RAIN: rainfall, RH: relative humidity, SH: sunshine hours, 𝜙: correlation index [AR(1)].