Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
International Journal of Agronomy
Volume 2017 (2017), Article ID 3931897, 15 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/3931897
Research Article

An Overview of Global Wheat Market Fundamentals in an Era of Climate Concerns

1Business Administration, California State University, Northridge, 18111 Nordhoff Street, Northridge, CA 91330, USA
2Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University, 1200 Center Ave. Mall, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1172, USA

Correspondence should be addressed to Amanda M. Countryman

Received 23 February 2017; Revised 25 April 2017; Accepted 3 May 2017; Published 2 July 2017

Academic Editor: Anna I. De Luca

Copyright © 2017 Aliakbar Enghiad et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Linked References

  1. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, “About us: a strategic collaboration,” Agriculture And Food Security 2017 https://ccafs.cgiar.org/about-us.
  2. C. P. Timmer, “The macro dimensions of food security: economic growth, equitable distribution, and food price stability,” Food Policy, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 283–295, 2000. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  3. FAO (Food And Agriculture Organization of The United Nations) Statistics (2014-15)http://faostat3.fao.org/browse/T/*/E. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  4. Foreign Agricultural Services Usda, Production, supply, and distribution statistics: world commodity imports https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/advQuery.
  5. R. Ortiz, K. D. Sayre, B. Govaerts et al., “Climate change: can wheat beat the heat?” Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, vol. 126, no. 1, pp. 46–58, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  6. ERS (Economic Research Service), Wheat Year Book Table 3, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply and Distribution Database, 2015.
  7. G20 Agriculture Ministers, G20 Agriculture Ministers’ Declaration 2017: Towards food and water security: Fostering sustainability, advancing innovation, German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture.
  8. B.-C. Curtis, S. Rajaram, and H. Gómez Macpherson, Bread Wheat: Improvement And Production, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2002.
  9. USDA, “(united states department of agriculture).,” economic research services 2014 http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/trade.aspx#.
  10. M.-Y. Nuttonson, “Wheat-climate relationships and the use of phenology in ascertaining the thermal and photo-thermal requirements of wheat based on data of North America and of some thermally analogous areas of North America in the Soviet Union and in Finland,” 1955.
  11. W. H. Leonard and J. H. Martin, “Wheat: importance, history and adaptation,” in Cereal Crops, vol. 287, p. 227, Macmillian Co., New York, NY, USA, 1963. View at Google Scholar
  12. A. Herdağdelen, A. Gros, and Y. Bar-Yam, “Global grain consumption map,” Global Grain Consumption Map, New England Complex Systems Institute, 2011. View at Google Scholar
  13. Y. Bar-Yam, L. Marco, and Y. Bar-Yam, “South African riots: repercussion of the global food crisis and US drough,” in Conflict and Complexity, Understanding Complex Systems, pp. 261–267, Springer, New York, NY, USA, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  14. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), “Crop breeding: the green revolution and the preceding millennia,” 2003 http://www.fao.org/english/newsroom/focus/2003/gmo2.htm. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  15. D. M. Liverman, “Forecasting the impact of climate on food systems: model testing and model linkage,” Climatic Change, vol. 11, no. 1-2, pp. 267–285, 1987. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  16. J. Valizadeh, S. M. Ziaei, and S. M. Mazloumzadeh, “Assessing climate change impacts on wheat production (a case study),” Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 107–115, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  17. A. G. Dai, “Drought under global warming: a review,” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 45–65, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  18. M. V. K. Sivakumar, H. P. Das, and O. Brunini, “Impacts of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics,” Climatic Change, vol. 70, no. 1-2, pp. 31–72, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  19. Q. Luo, W. Bellotti, M. Williams, and B. Bryan, “Potential impact of climate change on wheat yield in South Australia,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 132, no. 3-4, pp. 273–285, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  20. R. C. Izaurralde, N. J. Rosenberg, R. A. Brown, and A. M. Thomson, “Integrated assessment of Hadley Center (HadCM2) climate-change impacts on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States. Part II. Regional agricultural production in 2030 and 2095,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 117, no. 1-2, pp. 97–122, 2003. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  21. X.-C. Zhang and W.-Z. Liu, “Simulating potential response of hydrology, soil erosion, and crop productivity to climate change in Changwu tableland region on the Loess Plateau of China,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 131, no. 3-4, pp. 127–142, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  22. UNFCCC (united nations framework convention on climate change), Global Climate Action Agriculture and Food Security 2016http://unfccc.int/files/paris_agreement/application/pdf/gca-agrfood-programme_20102016.pdf.
  23. CTA (Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation), “Moving agriculture further up the climate change agenda,” 2015 http://www.cta.int/en/article/2015-06-01/moving-agriculture-further-up-the-climate-change-agenda.html.
  24. C. B. Barrett, “Measuring food insecurity,” Science, vol. 327, no. 5967, pp. 825–828, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  25. F. G. Santeramo, “Food security composite indices: implications for policy and practice,” Development in Practice, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 594–600, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  26. R. Chand, “Wheat supply, price prospects, and food security,” Economic and Political Weekly, vol. 42, no. 19, pp. 1659–1663, 2007. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  27. M. G. Haile, M. Kalkuhl, and J. von Braun, “Worldwide acreage and yield response to international price change and volatility: a dynamic panel data analysis for wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans,” in Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy, vol. 98, pp. 139–165, Springer International Publishing, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  28. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Overview of BLS statistics on inflation and prices: consumer price index,” 2015 http://www.bls.gov/cpi/.
  29. A. F. McCalla, “World food prices: Causes and consequences,” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 57, no. 1, pp. 23–34, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  30. D. O. Mitchell and M. Mielke, “Wheat: The Global Market, Policies, and Priorities,” in Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries, p. 11, World Bank, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  31. J. Moy, “Recent trends in unemployment and the labor force, 10 countries,” Monthly Labor Review, vol. 108, no. 8, pp. 9–22, 1985. View at Google Scholar
  32. R. H. Rasche and J. A. Tatom, “Energy price shocks, aggregate supply and monetary policy: the theory and the international evidence,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 14, pp. 9–93, 1981. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  33. L. Hennemuth, “Partial grain embargo: pragmatism’s centrality to argentine refusal to cooperate,” The Monitor, pp. 44–55, 2012. View at Google Scholar
  34. C. B. Luttrell, “The russian grain embargo: dubious success,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, vol. 62, no. 7, pp. 2–8, 1980. View at Google Scholar
  35. I. Jebabli, M. Arouri, and F. Teulon, “On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: an empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility,” Energy Economics, vol. 45, pp. 66–98, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  36. P. Sadorsky, “Modeling volatility and correlations between emerging market stock prices and the prices of copper, oil and wheat,” Energy Economics, vol. 43, pp. 72–81, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  37. G. Tadasse, B. Algieri, M. Kalkuhl et al., “Drivers and triggers of international food price spikes and volatility,” in Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy, pp. 59–82, Springer International Publishing. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  38. J. Baffes and T. Haniotis, “What explains agricultural price movements?” Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 67, no. 3, pp. 706–721, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  39. S.-T. Chen, H.-I. Kuo, and C.-C. Chen, “Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices,” Applied Energy, vol. 87, no. 8, pp. 2517–2525, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  40. B. Wright, “Global biofuels: Key to the puzzle of grain market behavior,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 73–98, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  41. S. H. Saghaian, “The Impact of the oil sector on commodity prices: correlation or causation?” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, vol. 42, no. 3, pp. 477–485, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  42. A. Esmaeili and Z. Shokoohi, “Assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices: application of principal component analysis,” Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 1022–1025, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  43. V. Natanelov, M. J. Alam, A. M. McKenzie, and G. Van Huylenbroeck, “Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?” Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 9, pp. 4971–4984, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  44. T. Serra and J. M. Gil, “Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations?” European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 40, no. 3, pp. 507–528, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  45. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum & Other Liquids 2014 http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.cfm#prices.
  46. J. A. Frieden and R. Rogowski, “The impact of the international economy on national policies: an analytical overview,” Internationalization and Domestic Politics, pp. 25–47, 1996. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  47. T. W. Hertel, W. Martin, and A. M. Leister, “Potential implications of a special safeguard mechanism in the world trade organization: the case of wheat,” The World Bank Economic Review, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 330–359, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  48. A. Cioffi, F. G. Santeramo, and C. D. Vitale, “The price stabilization effects of the EU entry price scheme for fruit and vegetables,” Agricultural Economics, vol. 42, no. 3, pp. 405–418, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  49. M. Ivanic and W. Martin, “Implications of domestic price insulation for global food price behavior,” Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 42, pp. 272–288, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  50. C. Ackello-Ogutu and P. Echessah, “Unrecorded cross-border trade between Kenya and Uganda,” Tech. Rep. 59, SD Publication Series Office of Sustainable Development Bureau for Africa, USAID, 1997. View at Google Scholar
  51. M. A. Aksoy and C. B. Beghin, Eds., Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries, The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. World Bank Publications, 2004. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  52. Market Access Map Quick Search: Tariffs, Quick Search: Tariffs, International Trade Centre, 2017.
  53. OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development)-FAO, Agricultural outlook 2014–2023 food and agriculture organization of the united nation 2015 http://goo.gl/DHK14Y.
  54. E. Bobenrieth, B. Wright, and D. Zeng, “Stocks-to-use ratios and prices as indicators of vulnerability to spikes in global cereal markets,” Agricultural Economics, vol. 44, no. 1, pp. 43–52, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  55. K. Daugherty and K. Kelly, “Stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio: are they meaningful for price determination?” Growmark Research, pp. 1–32, 2014, http://www.growmark.com/sites/Files/Documents/StocksToUse.pdf. View at Google Scholar
  56. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), NOAA 2015 http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/enso.mei_index.html. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  57. J. Y. Shend, Agricultural statistics of the former USSR Republics and the Baltic States, Statistical bulletin, 1993.
  58. H. D. Rogers, “Irrigation management,” in Wheat Production Handbook, Cooperative Extension Publication C-529, Kansas State University, Manhattan, NY, USA, 1997. View at Google Scholar
  59. Year Book Australia, The Australian Wheat Industry. 1301.0, Year Book Australia, 2006 http://goo.gl/Y7jKjc.
  60. VOA, US Seeks Fast Test to Settle GM Wheat Scare, Voice of America. Science and Technology, 2013.
  61. The World Bank, “Cereal Yield Data. World Development Indicators: Agricultural Output and Productivity,” 2014 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.YLD.CREL.KG/countries.
  62. Wheat Atlas, 2014 http://wheatatlas.org/country/CAN/0.
  63. AGDA (Australian Government Department of Agriculture), “Wheat Overview,” 2015 http://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/crops/wheat.
  64. Foreign Agricultural Services USDA, ““Grain World Markets and Trade.” World Production, Markets, and Trade Reports,” 2014 http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/grain-world-markets-and-trade.
  65. T. Wheeler and J. Von Braun, “Climate change impacts on global food security,” Science, vol. 341, no. 6145, pp. 508–513, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus