An Analytical Method for Calculating Short-Term Space Interception Probability

<table class="table-group" id="tab5"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="2"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left"></td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 11.0328ptpx;"><svg height="11.927pt" id="M393" style="vertical-align:-3.291101pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 11.0328 11.927" width="11.0328pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M600 480C600 590 528 650 384 650H143L137 622C222 614 225 607 210 531L130 127C113 41 106 36 23 28L17 0H294L300 28C204 36 195 42 212 127L243 284L314 263C327 263 339 263 352 264C465 271 600 337 600 480ZM508 481C508 351 402 304 329 304C289 304 265 311 250 317L295 559C302 594 310 606 323 611C335 616 350 619 367 619C455 619 508 573 508 481Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.656,3.132)"><path d="M387 400C387 425 348 451 303 451C247 451 176 414 132 376C69 322 24 228 24 148C24 43 74 -12 147 -12C211 -12 301 33 363 103L346 128C319 99 249 51 193 51C148 51 112 84 112 165C112 230 130 287 154 330C170 359 199 400 243 400C277 400 304 383 326 354C333 345 343 343 354 348C378 360 387 382 387 400Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="2"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Monte Carlo</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 102.233ptpx;"><svg height="11.9413pt" id="M394" style="vertical-align:-0.3499002pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 102.233 11.9413" width="102.233pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g><g 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16L528 54Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,78.81,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,85.05,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,91.337,-5.741)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,96.897,-5.741)"><path d="M462 177V227H365V632H320C217 496 116 350 21 208V177H284V109C284 43 280 38 190 31V0H451V31C369 38 365 43 365 108V177H462ZM284 227H88C155 336 218 430 282 519H284V227Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left">Chan</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 102.233ptpx;"><svg height="11.9413pt" id="M395" style="vertical-align:-0.3499002pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 102.233 11.9413" width="102.233pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,6.24,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,9.204,0)"><path d="M412 140C382 77 369 73 315 73H129L270 222C362 320 402 379 402 466C402 571 322 635 234 635C177 635 130 609 99 576L42 495L64 475C90 514 133 568 201 568C274 568 318 519 318 435C318 349 255 267 193 193C144 135 87 78 32 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<div>Interception probability <svg height="11.927pt" id="M392" style="vertical-align:-3.291101pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 11.0328 11.927" width="11.0328pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M600 480C600 590 528 650 384 650H143L137 622C222 614 225 607 210 531L130 127C113 41 106 36 23 28L17 0H294L300 28C204 36 195 42 212 127L243 284L314 263C327 263 339 263 352 264C465 271 600 337 600 480ZM508 481C508 351 402 304 329 304C289 304 265 311 250 317L295 559C302 594 310 606 323 611C335 616 350 619 367 619C455 619 508 573 508 481Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.656,3.132)"><path d="M387 400C387 425 348 451 303 451C247 451 176 414 132 376C69 322 24 228 24 148C24 43 74 -12 147 -12C211 -12 301 33 363 103L346 128C319 99 249 51 193 51C148 51 112 84 112 165C112 230 130 287 154 330C170 359 199 400 243 400C277 400 304 383 326 354C333 345 343 343 354 348C378 360 387 382 387 400Z"></path></g></svg> obtained by the three methods.</div>

International Journal of Aerospace Engineering

tab5

Table 5

Table 5: An Analytical Method for Calculating Short-Term Space Interception Probability 