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International Journal of Chemical Engineering
Volume 2010, Article ID 104370, 13 pages
Research Article

Evaluating EML Modeling Tools for Insurance Purposes: A Case Study

Department of Product and Production, Chalmers University of Technology, 41296 Gothenburg, Sweden

Received 31 March 2010; Revised 18 October 2010; Accepted 30 November 2010

Academic Editor: Deepak Kunzru

Copyright © 2010 Mikael Gustavsson et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


As with any situation that involves economical risk refineries may share their risk with insurers. The decision process generally includes modelling to determine to which extent the process area can be damaged. On the extreme end of modelling the so-called Estimated Maximum Loss (EML) scenarios are found. These scenarios predict the maximum loss a particular installation can sustain. Unfortunately no standard model for this exists. Thus the insurers reach different results due to applying different models and different assumptions. Therefore, a study has been conducted on a case in a Swedish refinery where several scenarios previously had been modelled by two different insurance brokers using two different softwares, ExTool and SLAM. This study reviews the concept of EML and analyses the used models to see which parameters are most uncertain. Also a third model, EFFECTS, was employed in an attempt to reach a conclusion with higher reliability.