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International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences
Volume 2016, Article ID 6382926, 6 pages
Research Article

Modelling the Impact of Government Policies on Import on Domestic Price of Indian Gold Using ARIMA Intervention Method

1Research and Development Centre, Bharathiar University, Coimbatore 641046, India
2Department of Statistics, Kristu Jayanti College, Bangalore, Karnataka 560077, India
3Department of Statistics, Bharathiar University, Coimbatore 641046, India

Received 29 May 2016; Revised 10 August 2016; Accepted 11 August 2016

Academic Editor: Shey-Huei Sheu

Copyright © 2016 Jyothi Unnikrishnan and Kodakanallur Krishnaswamy Suresh. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The study attempts to determine the impact of government policies of import of gold in India on the domestic price of gold during 2013 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) intervention model. 2013 was an amazing year for Indian gold market where the price had reached its zenith. In April 2013, to curb a record trade deficit, India imposed an import duty of 10 percent on gold and tied imports for domestic consumption to exports, creating scarce supply of the yellow metal and boosting premiums to curtail the Current Account Deficit (CAD). The objective of the paper is to model the impact of this intervention by the government on the domestic price of Indian gold. Suitable ARIMA model is fit on the preintervention period and thereafter the effects of the interventions are analysed. The results indicate that ARIMA is the most suitable model during preintervention period. Intervention analysis reveals that there is significant decrease in domestic price of gold by 56% from 2013. The model may be used by policymakers to analyse the future of gold before framing regulations and policies.