Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040

Table 2

Estimated cost to treat patients with ESRD in year 2000 to 2040.

Year	Est. pop. (in ’000)	Incidence				Prevalence
		Number	Rate (per 10,000 pop.)	Est. cost (RM mil)	Est. cost (USD mil)	Number	Rate (per 10,000 pop.)	Est. cost (RM mil)	Est. cost (USD mil)
2000	23,494.90	1,853	0.79	55.59	13.90	6,702	2.85	201.06	50.27
2005	26,045.50	3,167	1.22	95.01	23.75	13,356	5.13	400.68	100.17
2010	28,588.60	5,305	1.86	159.15	39.79	23,709	8.29	711.27	177.82
	31,186.10	7,906	2.54	237.18	59.30	37,524	12.03	1,125.72	281.43
	33,782.40	10,208	3.02	306.24	76.56	51,269	15.18	1,538.07	384.52
	36,022.70	12,511	3.47	375.33	93.83	65,014	18.05	1,950.42	487.61
	38,062.20	14,813	3.89	444.39	111.10	78,759	20.69	2,362.77	590.69
	39,879.30	17,116	4.29	513.48	128.37	92,504	23.20	2,775.12	693.78
	41,503.10	19,418	4.68	582.54	145.64	106,249	25.60	3,187.47	796.87

Est. = estimated; pop. = population.
a estimates number of cases from the selected model (ARIMA [, , ]).
Each ESRD patient is estimated to incur cost for RM 30,000 (on estimated rate of 1.00 USD = 4.00 MYR).
Source of estimated population from Department of Statistics, Malaysia.