Research Article
A Comparison of Models for Estimating Solar Radiation from Sunshine Duration in Croatia
Table 3
Statistical comparison of the model performance for selected Croatian locations.
| Location | | Model no. | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| Dubrovnik | MAPE | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | MBE | -0.265 | -0.325 | -0.405 | 0.267 | -0.198 | -0.011 | -0.048 | -0.084 | -0.099 | -0.183 | -0.146 | -0.136 | 0.236 | -0.117 | -0.498 | -0.003 | -0.034 | MAE | 0.330 | 0.384 | 0.451 | 0.272 | 0.271 | 0.159 | 0.169 | 0.211 | 0.211 | 0.262 | 0.232 | 0.222 | 0.236 | 0.229 | 0.536 | 0.117 | 0.150 | RMSE | 0.403 | 0.471 | 0.526 | 0.369 | 0.340 | 0.233 | 0.241 | 0.277 | 0.280 | 0.338 | 0.305 | 0.298 | 0.316 | 0.302 | 0.661 | 0.187 | 0.233 |
| Gospić | MAPE | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | MBE | -0.218 | -0.196 | -0.332 | 0.211 | -0.125 | 0.057 | -0.039 | -0.003 | -0.013 | -0.100 | -0.080 | -0.052 | 0.097 | -0.007 | -0.264 | 0.070 | -0.002 | MAE | 0.236 | 0.228 | 0.335 | 0.230 | 0.152 | 0.090 | 0.087 | 0.107 | 0.105 | 0.145 | 0.123 | 0.134 | 0.206 | 0.118 | 0.305 | 0.100 | 0.087 | RMSE | 0.300 | 0.307 | 0.399 | 0.277 | 0.196 | 0.113 | 0.100 | 0.133 | 0.127 | 0.186 | 0.151 | 0.167 | 0.253 | 0.143 | 0.419 | 0.120 | 0.101 |
| Parg | MAPE | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | MBE | -0.103 | -0.040 | -0.199 | 0.286 | 0.007 | 0.181 | 0.066 | 0.161 | 0.129 | 0.044 | 0.057 | 0.078 | 0.097 | 0.138 | -0.058 | 0.199 | 0.130 | MAE | 0.136 | 0.116 | 0.220 | 0.286 | 0.071 | 0.181 | 0.084 | 0.164 | 0.129 | 0.070 | 0.072 | 0.100 | 0.212 | 0.138 | 0.157 | 0.199 | 0.130 | RMSE | 0.172 | 0.145 | 0.253 | 0.354 | 0.096 | 0.200 | 0.123 | 0.188 | 0.151 | 0.098 | 0.099 | 0.130 | 0.291 | 0.158 | 0.198 | 0.227 | 0.146 |
| Rijeka | MAPE | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | MBE | -0.195 | -0.163 | -0.278 | 0.295 | -0.075 | 0.103 | 0.029 | -0.013 | 0.040 | -0.047 | -0.017 | -0.026 | 0.287 | 0.034 | -0.310 | 0.118 | 0.067 | MAE | 0.257 | 0.253 | 0.302 | 0.295 | 0.170 | 0.153 | 0.108 | 0.135 | 0.153 | 0.169 | 0.147 | 0.156 | 0.287 | 0.161 | 0.376 | 0.148 | 0.144 | RMSE | 0.328 | 0.322 | 0.393 | 0.317 | 0.215 | 0.169 | 0.130 | 0.166 | 0.176 | 0.214 | 0.181 | 0.199 | 0.308 | 0.184 | 0.490 | 0.169 | 0.165 |
| Split | MAPE | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 9.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | MBE | -0.268 | -0.305 | -0.385 | 0.280 | -0.180 | 0.005 | -0.032 | -0.064 | -0.082 | -0.165 | -0.129 | -0.117 | 0.248 | -0.101 | -0.474 | 0.014 | -0.021 | MAE | 0.268 | 0.305 | 0.385 | 0.280 | 0.182 | 0.069 | 0.099 | 0.149 | 0.106 | 0.172 | 0.137 | 0.142 | 0.248 | 0.124 | 0.474 | 0.041 | 0.072 | RMSE | 0.317 | 0.368 | 0.433 | 0.365 | 0.221 | 0.079 | 0.121 | 0.180 | 0.134 | 0.214 | 0.172 | 0.179 | 0.298 | 0.160 | 0.569 | 0.055 | 0.086 |
| Zadar | MAPE | 8.6% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | MBE | -0.387 | -0.406 | -0.488 | 0.162 | -0.285 | -0.101 | -0.142 | -0.173 | -0.188 | -0.270 | -0.236 | -0.220 | 0.143 | -0.208 | -0.589 | -0.092 | -0.136 | MAE | 0.402 | 0.421 | 0.489 | 0.196 | 0.312 | 0.163 | 0.183 | 0.206 | 0.235 | 0.302 | 0.272 | 0.250 | 0.163 | 0.255 | 0.589 | 0.132 | 0.176 | RMSE | 0.481 | 0.515 | 0.575 | 0.265 | 0.369 | 0.205 | 0.227 | 0.269 | 0.290 | 0.365 | 0.326 | 0.309 | 0.222 | 0.319 | 0.733 | 0.158 | 0.216 |
| Zagreb | MAPE | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.4% | MBE | -0.170 | -0.106 | -0.256 | 0.244 | -0.052 | 0.121 | 0.016 | 0.001 | 0.067 | -0.022 | -0.006 | 0.017 | 0.200 | 0.084 | -0.226 | 0.138 | 0.068 | MAE | 0.180 | 0.153 | 0.256 | 0.244 | 0.089 | 0.121 | 0.060 | 0.093 | 0.072 | 0.073 | 0.049 | 0.105 | 0.251 | 0.088 | 0.267 | 0.138 | 0.069 | RMSE | 0.231 | 0.192 | 0.307 | 0.312 | 0.110 | 0.136 | 0.083 | 0.103 | 0.091 | 0.089 | 0.067 | 0.118 | 0.330 | 0.110 | 0.343 | 0.164 | 0.087 |
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Note: MBE, MAE, and RMSE are given in kWh/m2.
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