Layperson-Oriented versus Clinical-Based Models for Assessing 10-Year Incidence of Coronary Heart Disease: National FINRISK Study

Table 4

Reclassifications of individuals based on layperson-oriented model as compared with other two models according to 10-year risk categories meaningful for intervention.

		Layperson oriented
	<5%	5–9%	10–19%	≥20%	Total	NRI (𝑃 value)
Men, 𝑛 (%)
Laboratory based
Non-events						0.011 (0.001)
<5%	10292 (93.3)	718 (6.5)	13 (0.1)	0 (0.0)	11023
5–9%	438 (19.6)	1537 (68.6)	264 (11.8)	0 (0.0)	2239
10–19%	6 (0.7)	333 (37.9)	500 (56.9)	40 (4.6)	879
≥20%	0 (0.0)	9 (4.6)	97 (50.0)	88 (45.4)	194
Total	10736	2597	874	128	14335
Events						0.071 (0.004)
<5%	121 (82.9)	24 (16.4)	1 (0.7)	0 (0.0)	146
5–9%	22 (13.9)	117 (74.1)	19 (12.0)	0 (0.0)	158
10–19%	1 (0.8)	43 (33.9)	74 (58.3)	9 (7.1)	127
≥20%	0 (0.0)	2 (4.1)	19 (38.8)	28 (57.1)	49
Total	144	186	113	37	480
Overall NRI						0.081 (0.001)
Non-laboratory based (Layperson oriented + systolic blood pressure)
Non-events						−0.008 (<0.001)
<5%	10450 (97.2)	301 (2.8)	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	10751
5–9%	286 (11.5)	2085 (84.0)	110 (4.4)	0 (0.0)	2481
10–19%	0 (0.0)	211 (22.4)	716 (75.9)	16 (1.7)	943
≥20%	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	48 (30.0)	112 (70.0)	160
Total	10736	2597	874	128	14335
Events						0.046 (0.018)
<5%	126 (89.4)	15 (10.6)	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	141
5–9%	18 (10.2)	145 (82.4)	13 (7.4)	0 (0.0)	176
10–19%	0 (0.0)	26 (21.7)	90 (75.0)	4 (3.3)	120
≥20%	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	10 (23.3)	33 (76.7)	43
Total	144	186	113	37	480
Overall NRI						0.038 (0.053)
Women, 𝑛 (%)
Laboratory based
Non-events						0.005 (<0.001)
<5%	15420 (98.3)	262 (1.7)	6 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	15688
5–9%	196 (33.3)	331 (56.3)	60 (10.2)	1 (0.2)	588
10–19%	6 (4.3)	44 (31.4)	76 (54.3)	14 (10.0)	140
≥20%	0 (0.0)	1 (3.1)	13 (40.6)	18 (56.3)	32
Total	15622	638	155	33	16448
Events						0.024 (0.516)
<5%	92 (92.9)	7 (7.1)	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	99
5–9%	12 (29.3)	21 (51.2)	7 (17.1)	1 (2.4)	41
10–19%	2 (11.1)	4 (22.2)	10 (55.6)	2 (11.1)	18
≥20%	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	3 (27.3)	8 (72.7)	11
Total	106	32	20	11	169
Overall NRI						0.029 (0.432)
Non-laboratory based (Layperson-oriented + systolic blood pressure)
Non-events						−0.006 (<0.001)
<5%	15404 (99.1)	143 (0.9)	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	15547
5–9%	215 (31.1)	449 (64.9)	28 (4.0)	0 (0.0)	692
10–19%	3 (1.8)	46 (27.7)	113 (68.1)	4 (2.4)	166
≥20%	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	14 (32.6)	29 (67.4)	43
Total	15622	638	155	33	16448
Events						0.077 (0.009)
<5%	96 (96.0)	4 (4.0)	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	100
5–9%	9 (29.0)	22 (71.0)	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	31
10–19%	1 (3.8)	6 (23.1)	17 (65.4)	2 (7.7)	26
≥20%	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	3 (25.0)	9 (75.0)	12
Total	106	32	20	11	169
Overall NRI						0.071 (0.017)

NRI: net reclassification improvement.