Assortativity and the Probability of Epidemic Extinction: A Case Study of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1-2009)
Figure 5
The impact of the age specificity of index cases on the probability of extinction. All panels, (a)–(c), examine the sensitivity of the probability of extinction in a fully susceptible large population given 10 index cases with , 1.4 and 1.6, respectively, with different , the proportion of within-group mixing and the proportion of adult index cases. Vertical grey bold line represents the empirically observed proportion of adult imported cases in Japan (i.e., 63.4% were aged <15 years). The horizontal axis measures the proportion of adult index cases among the total number of 10 index cases. The next-generation matrix, parameterized by Fraser et al. [6] with the dominant eigenvalue , is rescaled by multiplying each entry with ,.
