Contact Heterogeneity and Phylodynamics: How Contact Networks Shape Parasite Evolutionary Trees
Contact-network structure, infectious disease dynamics, and genealogical structure interact. The ratio of prevalence to incidence is the generation time, which scales prevalence of the predicted skyride (up to a constant factor). Dividing the predicted skyride by the number of pairs of lineages backs out a smoothed expected length of intracoalescent intervals in the genealogy. Panel labels on the top indicate the approximate degree distribution of the contact networks. The variance of the degree distributions increase from left to right. Parameters: contact-network size = 10,000, degree distribution mean = 4, transmission rate = 2, recovery rate = 1, proportion of nodes sampled = 0.01.