Epidemic Percolation Networks, Epidemic Outcomes, and Interventions
Figure 2
Major epidemic probabilities and attack rates in the mass-action models from Section 3.1. Lines represent theoretical predictions based on EPNs, and symbols represent observed probabilities and attack rates in simulations. The observed probability of a major epidemic is based on 1,000 runs of each model, where a major epidemic was defined as an epidemic with a final size ≥250. The observed attack rate is based on a single major epidemic. All models have a population of size 50,000. The predicted probability and attack rate of a major epidemic are equal only when the infectious period is fixed.
