Bettina C. Fries

Jonathan Mayer

Climate Change and Infectious Disease

Both origin and evolution of tuberculosis and its pathogens (<i>Mycobacterium tuberculosis</i>  complex) are not fully understood. The paleopathological investigation of human remains offers a unique insight into the molecular evolution and spread including correlative data of the environment. The molecular analysis of material from Egypt (3000–500 BC), Sudan (200–600 AD), Hungary (600–1700 AD), Latvia (1200–1600 AD), and South Germany  (1400–1800 AD) urprisingly revealed constantly high frequencies of tuberculosis in all different time periods excluding significant environmental influence on tuberculosis spread.  The typing of various mycobacteria strains provides evidence for ancestral <i>M. tuberculosis</i>  strains in Pre- to early Egyptian dynastic material (3500–2650 BC), while typical <i>M. africanum</i>   signatures were detected in a Middle Kingdom tomb (2050–1650 BC). Samples from the New Kingdom to Late Period (1500–500 BC) indicated modern <i>M. tuberculosis</i> strains. No evidence was seen for <i>M. bovis</i> in Egyptian material while <i>M. bovis</i> signatures were first identified in Siberian biomaterial dating 2000 years before present. These results contraindicates the theory that <i>M. tuberculosis</i> evolved from  <i>M. bovis</i> during early domestication in the region of the “Fertile Crescent,” but supports the scenario that <i>M. tuberculosis</i> probably derived from an ancestral progenitor strain. The environmental influence of this evolutionary scenario deserves continuing intense evaluation.

Andreas G. Nerlich

Sandra Lösch

Paleopathology of Human Tuberculosis and the Potential Role of Climate

The relatively uncommon fungal pathogen <i>Cryptococcus gattii</i> recently emerged as a significant cause of cryptococcal disease in human and animals in the Pacific Northwest of North America. Although genetic studies indicated its possible presence in the Pacific Northwest for more than 30 years, <i>C. gattii</i> as an etiological agent was largely unknown in this region prior to 1999. The recent emergence may have been encouraged by changing conditions of climate or land use and/or host susceptibility, and predictive ecological niche modeling indicates a potentially wider spread. <i>C. gattii</i> can survive wide climatic variations and colonize the environment in tropical, subtropical, temperate, and dry climates. Long-term climate changes, such as the significantly elevated global temperature in the last 100 years, influence patterns of disease among plants and animals and create niche microclimates habitable by emerging pathogens. <i>C. gattii</i> may have exploited such a hitherto unrecognized but clement environment in the Pacific Northwest to provide a wider exposure and risk of infection to human and animal populations.

Kausik Datta

Karen H. Bartlett

Kieren A. Marr

<i>Cryptococcus gattii</i>: Emergence in Western North America: Exploitation of a Novel Ecological Niche

Zoonotic tick-borne diseases are an increasing health burden in Europe and there is speculation that this is partly due to climate change affecting vector biology and disease transmission. Data on the vector tick <i>Ixodes ricinus</i> suggest that an extension of its northern and altitude range has been accompanied by an increased prevalence of tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change may also be partly responsible for the change in distribution of <i>Dermacentor reticulatus</i>. Increased winter activity of &#x2009;<i>I. ricinus</i> is probably due to warmer winters and a retrospective study suggests that hotter summers will change the dynamics and pattern of seasonal activity, resulting in the bulk of the tick population becoming active in the latter part of the year. Climate suitability models predict that eight important tick species are likely to establish more northern permanent populations in a climate-warming scenario. However, the complex ecology and epidemiology of such tick-borne diseases as Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis make it difficult to implicate climate change as the main cause of their increasing prevalence. Climate change models are required that take account of the dynamic biological processes involved in vector abundance and pathogen transmission in order to predict future tick-borne disease scenarios.

J. S. Gray

H. Dautel

A. Estrada-Pe&#241;a

O. Kahl

E. Lindgren

Effects of Climate Change on Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases in Europe

Seasonal variation in smallpox transmission is one of the most pressing ecological questions and is relevant to bioterrorism preparedness. The present study reanalyzed 7 historical datasets which recorded monthly cases or deaths. In addition to time series analyses of reported data, an estimation and spectral analysis of the effective reproduction number at calendar time <svg     style="vertical-align:-0.1638pt;width:5.9250002px;" id="M1" height="10.3875" version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 5.9250002 10.3875" width="5.9250002"  xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
	
		
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</svg>, <svg     style="vertical-align:-2.3205pt;width:28.637501px;" id="M2" height="15.0875" version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 28.637501 15.0875" width="28.637501"  xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
	
		
			<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,12.138)"><path id="x1D445" d="M627 18l-10 -26q-79 6 -116 27t-69 76q-41 71 -71 138q-13 29 -27.5 39t-42.5 10h-46l-27 -145q-13 -74 -2.5 -88.5t78.5 -20.5l-6 -28h-271l5 28q66 6 82.5 21.5t30.5 87.5l71 387q12 66 2 78.5t-77 19.5l8 28h233q102 0 147 -29q65 -43 65 -129q0 -69 -45.5 -117&#xA;t-115.5 -72q40 -86 66 -133q39 -68 65 -101q28 -37 73 -51zM491 483q0 67 -33.5 101t-91.5 34q-35 0 -51 -10q-13 -8 -20 -48l-45 -245h49q71 0 113 28q79 52 79 140z" /></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,11.01,12.138)"><path id="x28" d="M300 -147l-18 -23q-106 71 -159 185.5t-53 254.5v1q0 139 53 252.5t159 186.5l18 -24q-74 -62 -115.5 -173.5t-41.5 -242.5q0 -130 41.5 -242.5t115.5 -174.5z" /></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,16.891,12.138)"><use xlink:href="#x1D461"/></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,22.688,12.138)"><path id="x29" d="M275 270q0 -296 -211 -440l-19 23q75 62 116.5 174t41.5 243t-42 243t-116 173l19 24q211 -144 211 -440z" /></g>

		
	
</svg>, were made. Meteorological variables were extracted from a report in India from 1890&#x2013;1921 and compared with smallpox mortality as well as <svg     style="vertical-align:-2.3205pt;width:28.637501px;" id="M3" height="15.0875" version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 28.637501 15.0875" width="28.637501"  xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
	
		
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</svg>. Annual cycles of smallpox transmission were clearly shown not only in monthly reports but also in the estimates of <svg     style="vertical-align:-2.3205pt;width:28.637501px;" id="M4" height="15.0875" version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 28.637501 15.0875" width="28.637501"  xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
	
		
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</svg>. Even short-term epidemic data clearly exhibited an annual peak every January. Both mortality and <svg     style="vertical-align:-2.3205pt;width:28.637501px;" id="M5" height="15.0875" version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 28.637501 15.0875" width="28.637501"  xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
	
		
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</svg> revealed significant negative association (<svg     style="vertical-align:-0.1638pt;width:50.549999px;" id="M6" height="11.375" version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 50.549999 11.375" width="50.549999"  xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
	
		
			<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,11.112)"><path id="x1D443" d="M619 482q0 -69 -40.5 -119t-96 -72.5t-118.5 -26.5h-44l-70 20l-31 -151q-14 -67 0.5 -83t89.5 -22l-5 -28h-287l8 28q65 7 81.5 22t29.5 83l79 398q12 56 0.5 70.5t-78.5 20.5l7 28h255q108 0 164 -43t56 -125zM524 478q0 141 -146 141q-25 0 -47 -8q-16 -6 -20.5 -13.5&#xA;t-10.5 -39.5l-43 -241q37 -13 83 -13q67 0 125.5 45t58.5 129z" /></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,15.582,11.112)"><path id="x3C" d="M512 -3l-437 233v51l437 233v-58l-378 -200v-2l378 -199v-58z" /></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,30.286,11.112)"><path id="x2E" d="M113 -12q-24 0 -39.5 16t-15.5 42q0 24 16 40.5t40 16.5t40 -16.5t16 -40.5q0 -26 -16 -42t-41 -16z" /></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,34.162,11.112)"><path id="x30" d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105&#xA;q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" /></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,42.321,11.112)"><path id="x31" d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" /></g>

		
	
</svg>) and correlation (<svg     style="vertical-align:-0.1638pt;width:50.549999px;" id="M7" height="11.375" version="1.1" viewBox="0 0 50.549999 11.375" width="50.549999"  xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
	
		
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</svg>), respectively, with humidity. These findings suggest that smallpox transmission greatly varies with season and is most likely enhanced by dry weather.

Hiroshi Nishiura

Tomoko Kashiwagi

Smallpox and Season: Reanalysis of Historical Data

This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change.

L. Berrang-Ford

J. D. MacLean

Theresa W. Gyorkos

J. D. Ford

N. H. Ogden

Climate Change and Malaria in Canada: A Systems Approach

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