Uncertainty Analysis of Multiple Hydrologic Models Using the Bayesian Model Averaging Method

Table 1

Results of BMA(3) and its 3 individual models in the mean prediction as well as 90% uncertainty interval for the whole flow series.

Models	Mean prediction			90% uncertainty interval
	𝑅^2 (%)	DRMS	RE (%)	CR (%)	𝐵 (m^3/s)	D (m^3/s)
Calibration period:
XAJ	88.69	30.77	21.04	24.83	31.41	16.69
SMAR	87.69	32.11	16.21	32.83	32.80	17.21
SIM	80.73	40.17	31.51	14.83	27.38	22.33
BMA(3)	90.68	27.92	27.87	40.72	43.76	16.06
Validation period:
XAJ	85.77	29.22	17.79	24.28	24.66	14.09
SMAR	85.30	29.70	14.19	31.91	25.52	14.56
SIM	69.81	42.56	39.48	14.33	18.40	20.07
BMA(3)	86.98	27.95	30.72	40.65	36.71	14.13

Note: bolded values represent the best results.