Trigonometric Regression for Analysis of Public Health Surveillance Data

Table 2

Simulation results for E. coli O157:H7 infection outbreaks assuming Poisson model.

E. coli-like outbreak				Probability of detection^1		Conditional expected delay^2		False-positive rate^3
Size ()	Duration (2)	Signature^4	Time	Region	State	Region	State	Region	State
1	2	(1, 1): 2	Trough	1.000	0.373	1.000	1.433	0.797	0.531
1	3	(1, 1, 1): 3	Trough	1.000	0.516	1.000	1.878	0.832	0.482
1	4	(1, 1, 1, 1): 4	Trough	1.000	0.637	1.000	2.282	0.811	0.459
2	2	(2, 2): 4	Trough	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.825	0.521
2	3	(1, 2, 1): 4	Trough	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.798	0.799	0.494
2	4	(1, 2, 2, 1): 6	Trough	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.796	0.803	0.462
2	2	(2, 2): 4	Mid	0.545	0.142	1.451	1.586	0.835	0.553
2	3	(1, 2, 1): 4	Mid	0.421	0.133	2.007	2.107	0.791	0.546
2	4	(1, 2, 2, 1): 6	Mid	0.653	0.207	2.417	2.476	0.762	0.537
4	2	(4, 4): 8	Mid	1.000	0.708	1.000	1.393	0.826	0.558
4	3	(2, 4, 2): 8	Mid	1.000	0.573	1.701	1.979	0.797	0.534
4	4	(2, 4, 4, 2): 12	Mid	1.000	0.789	1.694	2.281	0.784	0.536
2	2	(2, 2): 4	Peak	0.457	0.136	1.432	1.453	0.814	0.548
2	3	(1, 2, 1): 4	Peak	0.371	0.119	1.954	2.004	0.783	0.540
2	4	(1, 2, 2, 1): 6	Peak	0.543	0.183	2.358	2.414	0.740	0.535
4	2	(4, 4): 8	Peak	1.000	0.544	1.000	1.410	0.791	0.529
4	3	(2, 4, 2): 8	Peak	1.000	0.405	1.739	1.931	0.773	0.532
4	4	(2, 4, 4, 2): 12	Peak	1.000	0.596	1.747	2.295	0.757	0.536

Probability of detection (POD) per “outbreak.”
²Conditional expected delay (CED) per “detected outbreaks.”
³False-positive rate in terms of false-positive signals per year.
⁴The signature is the number of cases in each week during the outbreak, along with the total number of cases.