Research Article
Adaptive Combination Forecasting Model Based on Area Correlation Degree with Application to China’s Energy Consumption
Table 1
Forecasting results of China’s energy consumption based on individual model in 2005~2010.
| Year | Actual value | BP forecasting | BP APEa (%) | GM forecasting | GM APE (%) | TESM forecasting | TESM APE (%) | PTEM forecasting | PTEM APE (%) |
| 2005 | 224682 | 222677.2 | 0.8923 | 219684.8 | 2.2241 | 222220 | 1.09577 | 214791.6 | 4.402 | 2006 | 246270 | 249307.2 | 1.2333 | 237583.9 | 3.5271 | 251050 | 1.94096 | 232358.8 | 5.6487 | 2007 | 265583 | 262882.2 | 1.0169 | 256941.3 | 3.2539 | 275170 | 3.60979 | 251789.4 | 5.1937 | 2008 | 285000 | 281967.7 | 1.064 | 277875.8 | 2.4997 | 294190 | 3.22456 | 273195 | 4.1421 | 2009 | 306600 | 311303 | 1.5339 | 300516 | 1.9843 | 311730 | 1.67319 | 296687.2 | 3.2331 | 2010 | 325000 | 329039 | 1.2428 | 325000.9 | 0.000265 | 331770 | 2.08308 | 322377.7 | 0.8069 |
| MAPE (%) | | 1.1639 | 2.2482 | 2.2712 | 3.9044 |
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APE: absolute percentage error.
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