Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Transmission Dynamics of Lassa Fever

<table class="table-group" id="tab1"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="2"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Variable</td><td class="align_center">Description</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="2"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 27.9074ptpx;"><svg height="12.4698pt" id="M51" style="vertical-align:-3.18147pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 27.9074 12.4698" width="27.9074pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M449 634C442 637 425 643 405 650C376 660 341 666 307 666C181 666 98 590 98 485C98 400 170 343 215 310L246 288C307 243 343 204 343 147C343 67 291 18 219 18C104 18 61 124 51 202L23 199C28 124 27 71 27 47C47 22 122 -16 204 -16C324 -16 428 60 428 174C428 256 379 309 307 360L276 382C223 419 179 455 179 516C179 576 221 632 293 632C379 632 410 564 418 487L448 490C446 536 446 592 449 634Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.071,3.132)"><path d="M870 650H600L593 618C681 609 684 605 669 516L641 367H261L286 516C302 603 313 610 391 618L398 650H132L123 618C214 610 218 606 200 516L127 130C113 46 107 40 25 32L18 0H290L298 32C204 40 200 42 214 130L250 321H631L596 131C580 47 573 39 484 32L475 0H753L762 32C673 39 668 46 685 130L757 516C772 606 778 610 861 618L870 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,14.306,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,18.804,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.237,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Number of susceptible, naive, and nonimmune humans host at time, <i>t</i></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 29.7865ptpx;"><svg height="12.4698pt" id="M52" style="vertical-align:-3.18147pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 29.7865 12.4698" width="29.7865pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M593 650H142L136 622C219 616 224 611 209 531L130 120C114 39 108 34 23 28L17 0H501C518 32 557 130 568 158L540 169C519 132 495 93 469 70C439 43 409 35 332 35C272 35 241 37 225 50C211 61 211 89 222 149L253 320H350C441 320 443 312 441 239H471L510 434H481C455 366 448 358 360 358H260L303 572C311 613 312 615 348 615H431C509 615 522 603 532 581C544 555 546 531 545 491L574 493C583 555 592 631 593 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,7.943,3.132)"><path d="M870 650H600L593 618C681 609 684 605 669 516L641 367H261L286 516C302 603 313 610 391 618L398 650H132L123 618C214 610 218 606 200 516L127 130C113 46 107 40 25 32L18 0H290L298 32C204 40 200 42 214 130L250 321H631L596 131C580 47 573 39 484 32L475 0H753L762 32C673 39 668 46 685 130L757 516C772 606 778 610 861 618L870 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.178,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.676,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.109,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Number of exposed humans host at time, <i>t</i></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 32.0961ptpx;"><svg height="12.4698pt" id="M53" style="vertical-align:-3.18147pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 32.0961 12.4698" width="32.0961pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M686 28C612 35 607 44 591 112C563 234 541 360 519 489L489 666L457 658L147 121C100 40 89 36 24 28L17 0H240L250 28C168 34 159 41 190 101L262 237H482C495 180 503 137 510 91C517 47 514 35 441 28L433 0H677L686 28ZM475 280H285L429 541H431L475 280Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,10.244,3.132)"><path d="M870 650H600L593 618C681 609 684 605 669 516L641 367H261L286 516C302 603 313 610 391 618L398 650H132L123 618C214 610 218 606 200 516L127 130C113 46 107 40 25 32L18 0H290L298 32C204 40 200 42 214 130L250 321H631L596 131C580 47 573 39 484 32L475 0H753L762 32C673 39 668 46 685 130L757 516C772 606 778 610 861 618L870 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,18.479,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,22.977,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,27.41,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Number of infectious, asymptomatic humans host at time, <i>t</i></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 26.5504ptpx;"><svg height="12.4698pt" id="M54" style="vertical-align:-3.18147pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 26.5504 12.4698" width="26.5504pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M405 650H141L135 622C222 616 230 610 215 535L133 116C118 41 113 33 29 28L23 0H289L295 28C209 33 205 40 219 116L298 535C312 609 317 616 399 622L405 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,4.719,3.132)"><path d="M870 650H600L593 618C681 609 684 605 669 516L641 367H261L286 516C302 603 313 610 391 618L398 650H132L123 618C214 610 218 606 200 516L127 130C113 46 107 40 25 32L18 0H290L298 32C204 40 200 42 214 130L250 321H631L596 131C580 47 573 39 484 32L475 0H753L762 32C673 39 668 46 685 130L757 516C772 606 778 610 861 618L870 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.954,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,17.452,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.885,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Number of infected, infectious, clinically ill, and symptomatic humans host at time, <i>t</i></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 29.93ptpx;"><svg height="12.4698pt" id="M55" style="vertical-align:-3.18147pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 29.93 12.4698" width="29.93pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M610 18C585 26 567 34 540 68C517 97 499 128 476 171C452 215 425 276 413 304C496 332 570 394 570 494C570 555 545 595 509 619S419 650 364 650H139L133 622C216 615 219 612 203 527L129 132C112 40 105 36 23 28L17 0H279L285 28C199 34 194 40 211 132L239 284H284C320 284 334 275 351 236C374 182 394 140 420 93C459 23 495 -1 592 -8H600L610 18ZM480 485C480 424 449 372 403 342C374 323 338 316 293 316H245L291 562C296 589 301 601 311 608S337 618 358 618C432 618 480 575 480 485Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,8.086,3.132)"><path d="M870 650H600L593 618C681 609 684 605 669 516L641 367H261L286 516C302 603 313 610 391 618L398 650H132L123 618C214 610 218 606 200 516L127 130C113 46 107 40 25 32L18 0H290L298 32C204 40 200 42 214 130L250 321H631L596 131C580 47 573 39 484 32L475 0H753L762 32C673 39 668 46 685 130L757 516C772 606 778 610 861 618L870 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.321,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,20.819,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,25.252,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Number of recovered/temporary immune humans host at time, <i>t</i></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 25.9802ptpx;"><svg height="12.5794pt" id="M56" style="vertical-align:-3.29107pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 25.9802 12.5794" width="25.9802pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M449 634C442 637 425 643 405 650C376 660 341 666 307 666C181 666 98 590 98 485C98 400 170 343 215 310L246 288C307 243 343 204 343 147C343 67 291 18 219 18C104 18 61 124 51 202L23 199C28 124 27 71 27 47C47 22 122 -16 204 -16C324 -16 428 60 428 174C428 256 379 309 307 360L276 382C223 419 179 455 179 516C179 576 221 632 293 632C379 632 410 564 418 487L448 490C446 536 446 592 449 634Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.071,3.132)"><path d="M636 22C611 29 589 38 560 74C536 104 518 134 495 173L430 300C518 328 592 392 592 492C592 555 563 594 528 618C491 643 435 650 377 650H140L131 618C222 610 223 601 208 518L137 136C121 43 116 40 27 32L18 0H295L300 32C212 40 206 42 223 138L248 279H296C334 279 350 272 369 230C393 174 413 140 441 94C482 24 523 1 626 -8L636 22ZM497 480C497 422 468 374 417 343C387 324 353 315 304 315H255L298 556C303 583 309 598 319 603C331 610 348 613 367 613C448 613 497 573 497 480Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.378,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,16.876,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.31,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Number of susceptible <i>Mastomys natalensis</i> rat (rodent) at time, <i>t</i></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 24.6231ptpx;"><svg height="12.5794pt" id="M57" style="vertical-align:-3.29107pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 24.6231 12.5794" width="24.6231pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M405 650H141L135 622C222 616 230 610 215 535L133 116C118 41 113 33 29 28L23 0H289L295 28C209 33 205 40 219 116L298 535C312 609 317 616 399 622L405 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,4.719,3.132)"><path d="M636 22C611 29 589 38 560 74C536 104 518 134 495 173L430 300C518 328 592 392 592 492C592 555 563 594 528 618C491 643 435 650 377 650H140L131 618C222 610 223 601 208 518L137 136C121 43 116 40 27 32L18 0H295L300 32C212 40 206 42 223 138L248 279H296C334 279 350 272 369 230C393 174 413 140 441 94C482 24 523 1 626 -8L636 22ZM497 480C497 422 468 374 417 343C387 324 353 315 304 315H255L298 556C303 583 309 598 319 603C331 610 348 613 367 613C448 613 497 573 497 480Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,11.026,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,15.524,0)"><path d="M324 430H196L233 583L223 592L145 529L120 430H54L29 396L31 388H111L56 126C33 15 54 -12 77 -12C137 -12 214 57 250 95L233 119C208 92 155 59 138 59C126 59 120 70 131 125L186 390L298 394L324 430Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,19.958,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">Number of infected <i>Mastomys natalensis</i> rat (rodent) at time, <i>t</i></td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="2"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>Description of the state variables in the Lassa-fever model.</div>

Journal of Applied Mathematics

tab1

Table 1

Table 1: Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Transmission Dynamics of Lassa Fever 