Mathematical Model to Estimate and Predict the COVID-19 Infections in Morocco: Optimal Control Strategy

<table class="table-group" id="tab2"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Parameter</td><td class="align_center">PRCC</td><td class="align_center"><svg height="10.2124pt" id="M91" style="vertical-align:-3.42943pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -6.78297 7.83752 10.2124" width="7.83752pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M570 304C570 398 525 448 414 448C385 448 343 445 312 434L329 511L321 518C297 504 262 482 244 460L233 411C195 397 159 381 128 358L135 332C160 347 189 360 224 373L111 -147C97 -210 84 -218 17 -231L13 -257L254 -247L259 -218L233 -216C183 -212 177 -202 189 -142L218 -1C238 -10 266 -12 283 -12C351 3 429 48 483 105C543 168 570 242 570 304ZM482 289C482 161 380 33 304 33C278 33 248 51 233 69L303 396C326 400 352 403 369 403C428 403 482 380 482 289Z"></path></g></svg> value</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="3"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 7.68094ptpx;"><svg height="12.7178pt" id="M92" style="vertical-align:-3.42947pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 7.68094 12.7178" width="7.68094pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">0.4832</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 75.3647ptpx;"><svg 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430 62 430 223C430 297 379 359 290 375V377Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 5.39742ptpx;"><svg height="6.1673pt" id="M94" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 5.39742 6.1673" width="5.39742pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M383 397C383 424 344 448 299 448C244 448 172 409 132 375C66 319 23 227 23 146C23 42 74 -12 146 -12C208 -12 298 30 359 103L343 124C315 95 248 48 192 48C145 48 111 85 111 163C111 228 129 294 151 330C171 363 201 401 241 401C275 401 302 384 325 356C332 347 339 344 348 348C373 360 383 381 383 397Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">0.4176</td><td class="align_center"><span style="width: 75.3647ptpx;"><svg height="11.9413pt" id="M95" style="vertical-align:-0.3499002pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -11.5914 75.3647 11.9413" width="75.3647pt" 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217L492 16L528 54Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,47.61,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,53.85,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,60.137,-5.741)"><path d="M556 236V289H56V236H556Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,65.697,-5.741)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,70.128,-5.741)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 11.2181ptpx;"><svg height="12.4698pt" id="M96" style="vertical-align:-3.18147pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 11.2181 12.4698" width="11.2181pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 507C475 612 440 712 326 712C139 712 23 420 23 215C23 96 58 -12 180 -12C369 -12 475 293 475 507ZM391 522C391 486 387 448 379 394H126C155 538 222 677 310 677C386 677 391 571 391 522ZM373 346C344 193 283 22 189 22C126 22 106 114 106 196C106 243 111 293 118 346H373Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M389 0V32C297 38 291 46 291 118V635C234 613 175 595 109 583V556L161 554C203 552 207 547 207 497V118C207 46 201 38 110 32V0H389Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">0.0502</td><td class="align_center">0.4806</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 11.2181ptpx;"><svg height="12.4698pt" id="M97" style="vertical-align:-3.18147pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.28833 11.2181 12.4698" width="11.2181pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M475 507C475 612 440 712 326 712C139 712 23 420 23 215C23 96 58 -12 180 -12C369 -12 475 293 475 507ZM391 522C391 486 387 448 379 394H126C155 538 222 677 310 677C386 677 391 571 391 522ZM373 346C344 193 283 22 189 22C126 22 106 114 106 196C106 243 111 293 118 346H373Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,6.149,3.132)"><path d="M414 144C384 79 371 75 317 75H135L276 221C367 316 408 376 408 465C408 570 327 635 237 635C179 635 131 609 100 575L42 494L67 471C94 510 138 565 205 565C277 565 321 517 321 435C321 348 258 270 195 195C146 137 88 81 33 26V0H411C423 44 433 88 446 135L414 144Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">-0.1998</td><td class="align_center">0.0046</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 7.51131ptpx;"><svg height="6.1673pt" id="M98" style="vertical-align:-0.2063904pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 7.51131 6.1673" width="7.51131pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M545 106L524 126C493 85 467 65 455 65C438 65 427 113 405 238C448 295 498 362 543 439L533 448L478 435C453 386 423 331 398 295H395C370 404 347 448 282 448C169 448 23 309 23 153C23 54 65 -12 128 -12C203 -12 283 70 339 155H341C360 29 380 -12 411 -12C444 -12 491 11 545 106ZM333 204C265 95 210 54 169 54C137 54 113 96 113 171C113 302 191 405 252 405C301 405 318 306 333 204Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">-0.0283</td><td class="align_center">0.6910</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 8.41168ptpx;"><svg 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transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M478 372C478 418 458 448 431 448C409 448 389 431 389 410C389 404 391 400 394 395C398 388 406 371 406 348C406 253 308 122 251 51H249C254 122 249 257 231 336C212 421 189 448 159 448C126 448 75 412 23 327L48 306C83 354 103 371 115 371C125 371 134 360 144 334C185 224 192 64 183 -19C146 -100 116 -202 110 -244L125 -261C154 -259 208 -234 222 -220C222 -194 225 -84 235 -23C247 -3 273 36 308 79C379 165 478 288 478 372Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">-0.0521</td><td class="align_center">0.4640</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><span style="width: 7.13289ptpx;"><svg height="9.39034pt" id="M101" style="vertical-align:-3.42943pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -5.96091 7.13289 9.39034" width="7.13289pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M516 277C516 378 460 448 376 448C335 448 288 434 240 401C158 345 127 277 107 159C53 -161 38 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421 24 483 97ZM374 387C370 363 356 291 345 261C315 193 181 50 139 50C124 50 110 71 110 118C110 224 153 331 218 379C238 394 271 402 301 402C329 402 359 394 374 387Z"></path></g></svg></span></td><td class="align_center">0.0174</td><td class="align_center">0.8068</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="3"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>PRCCs for <svg height="12.3706pt" id="M90" style="vertical-align:-2.2681pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -10.1025 28.1267 12.3706" width="28.1267pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M429 650H175L169 622C251 614 259 612 244 532L174 152C163 91 152 37 135 -6C109 -72 67 -101 23 -113L33 -144C45 -143 73 -134 102 -119C186 -76 229 -1 254 133L327 532C341 609 347 613 423 622L429 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,5.879,0)"><path d="M300 -147C201 -63 143 98 143 270S200 602 300 686L282 710C136 610 70 450 70 271V270C70 89 136 -72 282 -170L300 -147Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.377,0)"><path d="M515 96L502 119C471 88 431 62 423 62C416 62 411 70 417 101C440 223 469 341 497 448H486L412 422L380 277C330 188 210 57 152 57C137 57 126 69 139 124L195 366C210 431 205 448 182 448C155 448 89 413 23 350L36 326C73 354 103 376 112 376C118 376 118 365 113 340L61 118C54 90 52 68 52 51C52 0 75 -12 98 -12S151 -3 181 17C242 58 305 119 362 193H364L345 104C323 3 339 -12 359 -12C390 -12 464 35 515 96Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,17.371,-5.741)"><path d="M486 158C486 177 478 202 466 220C413 228 386 236 336 262C386 288 413 297 466 304C478 323 486 347 485 366C470 376 444 381 422 380C389 338 368 319 321 288C323 345 329 372 349 422C339 442 322 461 305 470C289 461 271 442 262 422C281 372 287 345 290 288C243 319 222 338 189 380C167 381 142 376 125 366C125 347 133 322 145 304C198 296 225 288 275 262C225 236 198 227 145 220C133 201 125 177 126 158C141 148 167 143 189 144C222 186 243 205 290 236C288 179 282 152 262 102C272 82 289 63 306 54C322 63 340 82 350 102C330 152 324 179 321 236C368 205 390 186 422 144C444 143 470 148 486 158Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,23.45,0)"><path d="M275 270C275 450 212 609 64 710L45 686C145 604 203 442 203 270S147 -63 45 -147L64 -170C213 -68 275 89 275 270Z"></path></g></svg> and the model’s parameters.</div>

Journal of Applied Mathematics

tab2

Table 2

Table 2: Mathematical Model to Estimate and Predict the COVID-19 Infections in Morocco: Optimal Control Strategy 