Highway Project Value of Money Assessment under PPP Mode and Its Application

Table 5

The estimated investment risks scenario of probabilistic methods,   unit: million Yuan.

Scenario	Risk consequences	Probability	Weighted
favorable	More than 5% construction cost savings	5%	-5.24
Basic	Construction cost savings 5% - cost overruns 5%	10%	0
Unfavorable	Construction cost overruns 5% -15%	50%	104.82
Poor	Construction cost overruns 15% -25%	25%	91.72
Worst	More than 25% of construction cost overruns	10%	52.41
	Weighted average		243.71