Highway Project Value of Money Assessment under PPP Mode and Its Application

Table 6

The financial risks scenario of probabilistic methods,   unit: million Yuan.

scenario	Risk consequences	Probability	Weighted
favorable	More than 20% higher than the estimated value	20%	-5076
Basic	As same as estimated value	40%	0
Unfavorable	10% lower than the estimated value	20%	2538
Poor	20% lower than the estimated value	10%	2538
Worst	More than 30% lower than the estimated value	10%	3807
	Weighted average		3807