Structural Analysis of Shipping Fleet Capacity

Table 3

Estimated results of the SEM for container ship.

Simultaneous equations/Dependent	Variables	Coefficient	Std. Error	Prob.	Adjusted R-square	Durbin-Watson stat
Equation (1); Neworder	Constant	-2862.771	436.579	0.000	0.780	1.914
	Trade	0.077	0.018	0.000
	Fleet	-0.487	0.152	0.003
	NBPI	14.510	10.717	0.185
	Orderbook	-0.371	0.051	0.000
	AR(1)	-0.766	0.162	0.000
Equation (2); Fleet	Constant	624.384	721.757	0.393	0.995	1.990
	Neworder(-3)^a	0.067	0.078	0.395
	NBPI	-61.243	5.328	0.000
	BunkerPrice	-0.977	0.729	0.189
	Trade	0.129	0.004	0.000
	AR(1)	0.487	0.218	0.032
Equation (3); Demolition	Constant	35.462	285.670	0.902	0.740	2.127
	HighAge	-0.223	10.615	0.983
	Laws	15.786	89.884	0.862
	Fleet	0.034	0.012	0.006
	Neworder	-0.072	0.030	0.021
	CRU	-1.086	0.741	0.152

Note: (-3) is the three-year lagged variable of Neworder.