Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project

<table class="fixed-width table-group" id="tab6"><tr><td><table class="table"><colgroup><col style="width:15.65em"/><col style="width:2.91em"/><col style="width:3.10em"/><col style="width:3.99em"/></colgroup><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td class="align_left">Null Hypothesis</td><td class="align_center">Obs</td><td class="align_center">Lags</td><td class="align_center">Prob.</td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><svg height="9.28596pt" id="M131" style="vertical-align:-0.04981041pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.23615 21.2647 9.28596" width="21.2647pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M238 0V26C174 32 166 38 166 104V712C132 700 70 683 18 677V653C81 647 87 645 87 577V104C87 38 78 32 15 26V0H238Z" id="g121-106"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,3.289,0)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z" id="g121-108"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.618,0)"><path d="M655 0V28C585 35 563 50 517 120C469 193 414 280 360 366C427 469 460 516 481 545C526 604 545 614 619 622V650H391V622C457 614 462 604 438 560C411 511 381 463 339 398C295 466 258 523 225 580C210 606 211 615 272 622V650H26V622C98 614 111 603 154 538C189 482 235 408 288 324C200 188 149 116 124 85C95 47 64 34 7 28V0H236V28C169 36 164 46 188 89C220 148 261 217 310 291C372 193 417 118 442 77C461 44 454 35 392 28V0H655Z" id="g121-86"></path></g></svg> is not the Granger cause of ln R</td><td class="align_center">14</td><td class="align_center">2</td><td class="align_center">0.0480</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><svg height="9.4034pt" id="M132" style="vertical-align:-0.1672506pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.23615 20.9515 9.4034" width="20.9515pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M238 0V26C174 32 166 38 166 104V712C132 700 70 683 18 677V653C81 647 87 645 87 577V104C87 38 78 32 15 26V0H238Z" id="g121-106"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,3.289,0)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z" id="g121-108"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.618,0)"><path d="M631 18C609 24 585 35 559 65C534 91 514 117 478 169C448 214 406 281 389 313C462 346 516 399 516 485C516 545 490 590 449 616C412 641 363 650 290 650H42V622C120 615 128 612 128 527V125C128 40 120 34 38 28V0H300V28C221 34 212 40 212 125V284H244C295 284 312 272 329 244C359 195 395 133 430 84C475 19 516 -3 592 -7C603 -8 615 -8 627 -8L631 18ZM212 316V563C212 591 215 602 223 607C231 613 248 617 277 617C352 617 423 577 423 469C423 415 407 375 368 345C343 324 310 316 260 316H212Z" id="g121-80"></path></g></svg> is not the Granger cause of ln X</td><td class="align_center">14</td><td class="align_center">2</td><td class="align_center">0.4984</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><svg height="9.28596pt" id="M133" style="vertical-align:-0.04981041pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.23615 20.9907 9.28596" width="20.9907pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M238 0V26C174 32 166 38 166 104V712C132 700 70 683 18 677V653C81 647 87 645 87 577V104C87 38 78 32 15 26V0H238Z" id="g121-106"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,3.289,0)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z" id="g121-108"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.618,0)"><path d="M620 650H399V622C477 614 480 606 457 556C429 495 375 397 338 331C295 406 246 488 203 568C185 601 182 613 254 622V650H15V622C75 617 86 606 126 537C180 445 217 379 252 318C269 287 273 278 273 258V125C273 40 265 34 176 28V0H458V28C366 34 358 41 358 125V261C358 287 361 298 375 324C422 412 456 470 501 543C539 604 551 614 620 622V650Z" id="g121-87"></path></g></svg> is not the Granger cause of ln R</td><td class="align_center">14</td><td class="align_center">2</td><td class="align_center">0.0359</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><svg height="9.4034pt" id="M134" style="vertical-align:-0.1672506pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.23615 20.9515 9.4034" width="20.9515pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M238 0V26C174 32 166 38 166 104V712C132 700 70 683 18 677V653C81 647 87 645 87 577V104C87 38 78 32 15 26V0H238Z" id="g121-106"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,3.289,0)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z" id="g121-108"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.618,0)"><path d="M631 18C609 24 585 35 559 65C534 91 514 117 478 169C448 214 406 281 389 313C462 346 516 399 516 485C516 545 490 590 449 616C412 641 363 650 290 650H42V622C120 615 128 612 128 527V125C128 40 120 34 38 28V0H300V28C221 34 212 40 212 125V284H244C295 284 312 272 329 244C359 195 395 133 430 84C475 19 516 -3 592 -7C603 -8 615 -8 627 -8L631 18ZM212 316V563C212 591 215 602 223 607C231 613 248 617 277 617C352 617 423 577 423 469C423 415 407 375 368 345C343 324 310 316 260 316H212Z" id="g121-80"></path></g></svg> is not the Granger cause of ln Y</td><td class="align_center">14</td><td class="align_center">2</td><td class="align_center">0.5812</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><svg height="9.28596pt" id="M135" style="vertical-align:-0.04981041pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.23615 20.5861 9.28596" width="20.5861pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M238 0V26C174 32 166 38 166 104V712C132 700 70 683 18 677V653C81 647 87 645 87 577V104C87 38 78 32 15 26V0H238Z" id="g121-106"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,3.289,0)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z" id="g121-108"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.618,0)"><path d="M561 176C543 127 527 95 506 73C478 43 441 36 316 36C247 36 185 38 153 42C290 245 427 439 566 636L559 650H160C130 650 119 652 107 675H83C81 630 76 555 71 492L100 491C112 535 123 560 135 578C152 605 168 614 276 614H449C310 411 169 213 29 15L37 0H554C565 41 583 134 590 170L561 176Z" id="g121-88"></path></g></svg> is not the Granger cause of ln R</td><td class="align_center">14</td><td class="align_center">2</td><td class="align_center">0.0377</td></tr><tr><td class="align_left"><svg height="9.4034pt" id="M136" style="vertical-align:-0.1672506pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.23615 20.9515 9.4034" width="20.9515pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M238 0V26C174 32 166 38 166 104V712C132 700 70 683 18 677V653C81 647 87 645 87 577V104C87 38 78 32 15 26V0H238Z" id="g121-106"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,3.289,0)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z" id="g121-108"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,12.618,0)"><path d="M631 18C609 24 585 35 559 65C534 91 514 117 478 169C448 214 406 281 389 313C462 346 516 399 516 485C516 545 490 590 449 616C412 641 363 650 290 650H42V622C120 615 128 612 128 527V125C128 40 120 34 38 28V0H300V28C221 34 212 40 212 125V284H244C295 284 312 272 329 244C359 195 395 133 430 84C475 19 516 -3 592 -7C603 -8 615 -8 627 -8L631 18ZM212 316V563C212 591 215 602 223 607C231 613 248 617 277 617C352 617 423 577 423 469C423 415 407 375 368 345C343 324 310 316 260 316H212Z" id="g121-80"></path></g></svg> is not the Granger cause of ln Z</td><td class="align_center">14</td><td class="align_center">2</td><td class="align_center">0.0780</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="4"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

<div>The results of Granger test on the variables.</div>

Journal of Advanced Transportation

tab6

Table 6

Table 6: Nonlinear Forecasting Model regarding Evolutional Risk of the PPP Project 