Research Article
Probabilistic En Route Sector Traffic Demand Prediction Based upon Statistical Analysis of Error Distribution Characteristics
Table 1
Mean
and variance
of aircraft’s predicted time error
of entering sector AR01-AR08 (min).
| | | AR01 | AR02 | AR03 | AR04 | AR05 | AR06 | AR07 | AR08 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 07:00
-07:14 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 8.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 9.7 | -70.7 | 112.2 | 6.3 | 18.4 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 6.2 | 0 | 3.3 | 7.5 |
| 07:15
-07:29 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 9.8 | -23.0 | 70.7 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 0 | 1.5 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 0.9 |
| 07:30
-07:44 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 8.2 | -13.4 | 24.0 | 8.4 | 17.7 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 3.6 |
| 07:45
-07:59 | 0.7 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 10.7 | -29.7 | 28.4 | 2.2 | 23.8 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| 08:00
-08:14 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 10.2 | -9.1 | 43.5 | -2.1 | 24.2 | 0.3 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 9.8 | -5.8 | 5.9 |
| 08:15
-08:29 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 13.1 | 2.6 | 19.2 | -4.9 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 6.6 |
| 08:30
-08:44 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 8.5 | 18.3 | 3.2 | 9.4 | -1.5 | 18.3 | 5.6 | 15.9 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 | -0.4 | 5.5 |
| 08:45
-08:59 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 9.8 | -6.1 | 25.9 | 2.8 | 20.9 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 11.6 | -0.6 | 6.7 |
| 09:00
-09:14 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 0.6 | 15.4 | -0.2 | 27.9 | 1.9 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| 09:15
-09:29 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 17.0 | 3.6 | 15.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 09:30
-09:44 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 13.9 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| 09:45
-09:59 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 8.6 | -4.5 | 15.9 | 1.4 | 16.5 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 4.4 |
| 10:00
-10:14 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 9.7 | 4.63 | 8.3 | 1.6 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 15.7 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 3.7 |
| 10:15
-10:29 | 1.60 | 0.97 | 1.49 | 8.62 | 6.94 | 8.65 | 5.8 | 29.6 | 3.39 | 10.57 | 7.46 | 1.83 | 3.22 | 9.48 | 0.26 | 1.83 |
| 10:30
-10:44 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 1.5 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 24.8 | -1.1 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 8.6 | 0.3 | 5.6 |
| 10:45
-10:59 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 12.4 | 2.9 | 11.5 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 9.4 | -2.8 | 4.2 |
| 11:00
-11:14 | 1.88 | 2.56 | -0.2 | 8.57 | 8.67 | 8.27 | 8.5 | 26.1 | 4.99 | 13.00 | 0.21 | 4.6 | 8.58 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| 11:15
-11:29 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 8.3 | -4.2 | 20.8 | 5.2 | 13.6 | 5.9 | 2.45 | -2.99 | 18.09 | 6.59 | 7.16 |
| 11:30
-11:44 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 20.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| 11:45
-11:59 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 20.5 | 4.8 | 13.4 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 7.6 | -1.2 | 9.9 |
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