Research Article
Probabilistic En Route Sector Traffic Demand Prediction Based upon Statistical Analysis of Error Distribution Characteristics
Table 2
Mean
and variance
of aircraft’s predicted time error
of leaving sector AR01-AR08 (min).
| | | AR01 | AR02 | AR03 | AR04 | AR05 | AR06 | AR07 | AR08 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 07:00
-07:14 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 10.3 | 14.1 | 8.3 | 9.9 | -70.8 | 112.6 | 6.5 | 18.4 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 9.9 | 0 | 6.2 | 1.1 |
| 07:15
-07:29 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 11.5 | -23.0 | 70.7 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 0 | 1.6 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 1.4 |
| 07:30
-07:44 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 0.1 | 10.2 | -13.3 | 24.1 | 7.30 | 14.3 | 10.9 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 |
| 07:45
-07:59 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 12.5 | -29.5 | 28.7 | 1.2 | 21.2 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.4 |
| 08:00
-08:14 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 12.3 | -9.1 | 43.6 | -1.3 | 24.8 | 0.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 9.7 | -5.7 | 5.9 |
| 08:15
-08:29 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 11.4 | 2.4 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 12.9 | 3.1 | 19.1 | -4.8 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 6.6 |
| 08:30
-08:44 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 8.8 | 18.5 | 2.2 | 10.7 | -1.2 | 18.5 | 5.8 | 15.8 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 8.4 | -0.1 | 5.5 |
| 08:45
-08:59 | 3.77 | 3.84 | 3.17 | 13.7 | 5.66 | 11.2 | -5.9 | 25.9 | 2.8 | 20.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 7.4 |
| 09:00
-09:14 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 15.5 | -0.2 | 28.0 | 3.4 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 09:15
-09:29 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 16.9 | 3.7 | 15.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 09:30
-09:44 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 10.3 | 3.0 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 13.7 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 14.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 |
| 09:45
-09:59 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 10.0 | 2.6 | 10.2 | -4.4 | 15.9 | 1.9 | 17.0 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.6 |
| 10:00
-10:14 | 1.9 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 9.2 | 1.8 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 13.4 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 4.3 |
| 10:15
-10:29 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 29.6 | 3.5 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 9.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| 10:30
-10:44 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 24.9 | -0.7 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 6.1 |
| 10:45
-10:59 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 9.7 | 1.4 | 12.4 | 3.1 | 11.7 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 9.7 | -1.7 | 5.1 |
| 11:00
-11:14 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 26.1 | 5.3 | 13.3 | 1.3 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| 11:15
-11:29 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 9.1 | -4.0 | 20.9 | 5.6 | 13.9 | 7.3 | 2.5 | -3.2 | 18.2 | 7.1 | 6.5 |
| 11:30
-11:44 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 21.1 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 13.9 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.54 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| 11:45
-11:59 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 20.7 | 5.0 | 13.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 8.1 | -0.8 | 10.1 |
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